Sometimes there are so many popcorn-munching, Jerry Springer-worthy distractions, we lose sight of the big picture. We focus on the wrong things. For example, a MAGA civil war has demolished the GOP’s midterm election hopes. It’s why a mighty blue tsunami is now inevitable.
That’s certainly what the legacy media is selling: Because of Israel, Jeffrey Epstein, and the Iran war, the MAGA movement is demoralized and fractured. President Donald Trump’s base has deserted him.
Meanwhile, the Democrats are mobilized and motivated. They’re even leading in Texas. Translation: The elephants are getting cooked.
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A lot to unpack. First, MAGA’s “fractures” are vastly overstated (as is the intensity gap). Frankly, there are more signs of a civil war on the Democratic side, where 59% of Democrats support the Democratic Socialists of America as a concept, yet its key tenets are exceedingly unpopular. Three out of 10 Democrats already oppose the DSA. There are no analogous divisions on the Republican side.
It’s a fault line overdue for an earthquake.
Second, the predictive value of political polls has been heading south for a while. They’re wrong with staggering regularity. Especially opinion polls in September: Then-Vice President Kamala Harris was leading Trump in September 2024 by 7 points.
But back to the so-called MAGA civil war. Thus far, most of the focus has been personality-centered: Tucker Carlson versus Mark Levin! Candace Owens says Israel killed Charlie Kirk! Are you Team Ben Shapiro or Team Megyn Kelly?
And when we aren’t obsessing over personalities, we’re gossiping about palace intrigue: Is Vice President JD Vance a Carlson clone? If Vance wins, will we be an anti-Israel party? Would Secretary of State Marco Rubio be better?
Yet the bigger issue has been ignored: Is it still possible for the MAGA movement to triangulate on Israel?
That’s the zillion-dollar question, because everything else is window dressing. If triangulation isn’t possible, the MAGA coalition will look very different in 2028. We’ll have to figure out how many voters we’ll lose, and then strategize how to replace them.
Because the two sides in the Israel debate aren’t compatible anymore. Too much rhetorical blood has been spilled. Too many accusations of genocide, bigotry, and ethnic cleansing. Which means someone’s heart will be broken.
Triangulation worked wonderfully for former President Bill Clinton. By rejecting both parties as extremists and seizing the middle, his approval ratings stayed in the 70s despite sex scandals, cigars, and impeachment. (Of course, branding his own party as extremists had devastating downstream consequences: The Democrats went from 57 Democrats in the Senate and 258 in the House to 45 in the Senate and 211 in the House.)
Since then, it’s fallen out of style. The bases detest it. Triangulation is seen as capitulation.
But Vance is giving it a whirl.
He’s positioning himself as a daywalker. (In Marvel comic book lore, a daywalker is someone with the powers of a vampire, yet immune to sunlight.) By triangulating, Vance is selling himself as someone welcome in both worlds.
A uniter. A bridge between the warring factions. A peace treaty.
“There’s this massive pro-Israel, anti-Israel debate in the United States of America,” the vice president told Joe Rogan. “I’m, like, the reasonable moderate.”
And in fairness to Vance, his foreign policy vision does sound reasonable. He placates the pro-Israel crowd by reaffirming Israel’s status as a valued U.S. ally. He soothes the anti-Israel crowd by disavowing anything more than that. Both sides’ worst fears are addressed. Neither side feels snubbed. The MAGA coalition endures.
That’s triangulation, baby!
But Vance doesn’t stop there. He echoes groyper talking points about America’s “subservience” to the Jewish state, while awkwardly sidestepping obvious antisemitic tropes. When pro-Israel conservatives complained about Trump’s policies (such as the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding), he attacked them with a rhetorical sledgehammer. Yet when Carlson and company said nastier and uglier things about the president, they got a pass.
Why?
It’s possible that Vance’s rhetoric belies his intent. Trump spoke respectfully about Russian President Vladimir Putin and critically of NATO, but his policies crippled the Russian economy and helped Ukraine turn the tide of war, while forcing NATO to reassert its military readiness. Saying one thing and doing something else is a political tradition.
Sometimes it’s a prerequisite.
So, perhaps this is all just political posturing: The veep is anti-Israel in the streets, pro-Israel in the sheets. (As the kids say.)
His Israel-bashing is Machiavellian politics. It’s theater — a fig leaf, perhaps, to protect his family from the groypers.
Or perhaps the opposite is true: Maybe the only reason he’s not pursuing anti-Israel policies is that Trump still sets the agenda, and left to his own devices, White House policies would change. His rhetoric foretells his actions.
But this debate isn’t really about Vance or Carlson. Nor is it about Israel and the Jews: Once again, they’re the canary in the coalmine and proxies in a larger war.
This is about white Christian nationalism.
The groypers represent a (very) vocal subset, with podcasters popularizing its neo-version. Which is why so much focus is on demonizing Israel: That’s the next item on their wish-list.
But it’s really about white Christian nationalism.
Unchecked immigration from third-world countries. Racial preferences for minority groups. The war on Christmas. Mocking the Bible. Mass migration of Muslims. Gender craziness.
For most of the past decade, MAGA was sympathetic to white Christian nationalist outcomes because the Democratic Party was actively promoting the alternative. But that doesn’t make MAGA a white Christian nationalist movement.
It meant the Democrats were against anything white, Christian, or nationalist.
Which is why white Christian nationalists jumped aboard the MAGA bandwagon. It’s why they cheered when Trump closed the border, deported millions of illegal immigrants, scrapped diversity, equity, and inclusion nonsense, and stopped transgender activists from pushing sex changes on children.
And there are millions of them. About 17% of Americans think Christianity ought to be our national religion. Thirty percent support the Christian nationalist movement. That’s more than enough of them to tilt the scales. Not all are anti-Israel. Many are passionate Zionists. But the groyper subset amplified by alternative media activates the anti-Zionists. (And worse.)
They can’t win elections for themselves, but they can stay home and hurt Republicans. Which is, of course, their leverage.
It’s also why triangulation is impossible.
Triangulation only works when there’s a reasonable middle. It’s highly effective in budget debates, i.e., where to draw the line on federal spending. (Fiscal triangulation probably saved Clinton’s presidency.)
But it doesn’t work on moral issues. It can’t, because neither side views the middle as reasonable.
Ironically, Vance’s critique of Israel is his public relations solution to Carlson: The vice president should say Carlson is an ally, just like Mark Levin, Mike Huckabee, Sean Hannity, and Ben Shapiro are allies. When we agree, we’ll work together. When our interests diverge, we won’t. But Trump and Vance won’t be “subservient” to Carlson — or anyone else.
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Don’t try to triangulate. Lead with conviction, courage, and moral clarity.
And keep focusing on America First outcomes that appeal to voters, not podcasters. That’s how MAGA got so popular in the first place.
Scott Pinsker (@ScottPinsker) is a public relations, branding, and crisis communications expert. His novel, The Second Coming of Christ: A Love Story, is available for purchase on Amazon.