As the author of the first comprehensive economic analysis of economic sanctions and a follower of all our Iranian sanctions, I can state unequivocally that the renewed economic actions will bring lots of pain but no strategic gain.
First, we are not dealing with Western rationality. Iran is run by ideological extremists who have abundantly demonstrated that no pain is too great for the Iranian people, as evidenced by their killing of thousands of their own with rifles, executions, and starvation. Even targeted assassinations, useful for upsetting their planning, do not deter these zealots who see their own deaths as shahids (martyrs), as noble and leading to the return of the twelfth imam and the ascendency of global Islam.
Time is not on our side, whatever you have been advised. It is often said that while Iran has lost many military battles, it has never lost a negotiation. Without kinetic actions, real goals will not be achieved. Our munitions are running low. Our military personnel are being worn down. Our Strategic Petroleum Reserve is running low. These vulnerabilities will only get worse.
The world is losing faith and respect for America’s decisive leader, who has become bogged down in what is now viewed as a very costly and fruitless confrontation. The economic pain from oil disruption is global and growing. Frictions with allies are high, and adversaries such as China and North Korea are both smiling as they watch the show and question whether now is perhaps the time to flex their own military muscles. The balance of power is dangerously shifting against us.
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Additionally, the Houthis and others are gaining time and opportunities to cause us more problems. Saudi Arabia is increasingly being squeezed. Finally, American will, clearly a critical element of national power, is rapidly eroding, thus making all future military actions more difficult and less supported.
America has overwhelming military force and a receptive Iranian population yearning for regime change. However, the only signal to which Iranians will now respond is the presence of American troops. No one likes war, and, sadly, there will be fatalities, American and Iranian. But the purpose of our military is not to remain safe, but to be a critical tool in achieving our strategic objectives. An American armed force, heading toward Tehran and arming the locals, who know how to deal with the Revolutionary Guard, will result in parades of American flags happily displayed in Tehran. Now is the time, President Donald Trump, and our time is running short.
Donald L. Losman, PhD, is a Middle East specialist who worked in the national security community for 37 years.