President Donald Trump says the United States and Poland have made “major progress” toward establishing a permanent U.S. Army base on Polish territory. Trump noted last week that the new base could be announced “very soon,” crediting what he called the “bold leadership” of Polish President Karol Nawrocki.
This is welcome news.
Poland is spending close to 5% of its GDP on defense, purchasing large quantities of American weapons, hosting U.S. forces, and serving as a logistical hub for support to Ukraine. Warsaw’s long-term goal is to host as many as 15,000 U.S. troops. The project would cost Poland more than $4 billion, covering housing, schools, medical facilities, transport links, logistics, and other infrastructure needed to support American troops and their families. But that figure represents Poland’s contribution, not the full cost of American operations.
For Poland, although costly, this would be an exceptionally valuable security guarantee. A permanent American presence would place U.S. troops, equipment, and military infrastructure directly on Polish territory, strengthening deterrence and creating a powerful tripwire that Moscow would find difficult to ignore. It would also strengthen command, logistics, air defense, and the rapid movement of forces along NATO’s eastern flank.
But the deal won’t be done until it’s done. Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski told me that there had been no meaningful progress so far. And alongside these talks, it’s important to note that Washington is reviewing its military presence in Europe at large. Facing increasing military demands related to China, Washington wants European allies to assume more responsibility for the continent’s conventional defense. The U.S. has roughly 80,000 troops deployed across Europe, including about 68,000 permanently assigned personnel.
Still, a Polish base for the U.S. Army would offer exactly the right response to Russia’s growing aggression. Part of the Kremlin’s calculation is that Washington may hesitate to defend its European allies if doing so risks a direct confrontation with Russia. A permanent U.S. presence in Poland would reduce the ambiguity by making clear that an attack on NATO’s eastern flank would involve American forces from the outset. For obvious reasons, then, Russia wouldn’t like this base to be built. But Moscow would only have itself to blame for this development. Russia has thoroughly undermined European security via its 2008 invasion of Georgia, 2014 seizure of Crimea, and full-scale war against Ukraine.
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This base would serve another positive purpose: showing that America sides with allies that are serious about defending themselves against Russian aggression and that contribute to the common defense.
Yes, this plan remains at an early stage. Turning political intent into a functioning base will take years, if it ever happens. But Trump’s announcement is good news. A permanent base could become another point of pressure in efforts to push Moscow toward serious negotiations over Ukraine. Russia has wagered that its prolonged war will exhaust the West and weaken American power. A new U.S. base on NATO’s eastern flank would educate the Kremlin that the opposite is happening.