When the Iran war began in February, CBS News conducted a prescient poll in the first week of the campaign, probing immediate support for the military strikes and whether that support would last.
Specifically, CBS found that 76% of Americans who expected the conflict to last days or weeks approved of the military action. Approval fell to 46% among those expecting months of fighting and just 13% among those expecting years.
Now, almost seven months into the war, which Trump said would last about four weeks, that 46% number looks optimistic.
According to the latest CNN poll, 70% of people say the Iran war has hurt the United States, 75% say Trump has no plan for the war, and 76% say the war isn’t worth the costs.
And people see those costs at the gas pump every day. AAA puts the national average for regular gasoline at $4.47 per gallon today, compared with $2.98 when the war began. That’s an increase of about $1.49 a gallon, or 50%.
Worse for Republicans on the ballot this year, Trump has been completely dismissive of these entirely legitimate concerns. At a rally in North Carolina last week, Trump said that high fuel prices were “a very inexpensive price to pay” for the war.
Voters disagree, and they appear ready to take out their frustrations on Trump’s party this November.
Maybe Trump’s Iran war will look strategically worth it years from now. China was tightening its grip on the Iranian regime, and while that regime has not been toppled, China’s top ally in the region is now significantly weaker than it was before, perhaps permanently.
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But in the short term, Trump clearly overestimated what our military could accomplish with air power alone and underestimated the economic pain an isolated and desperate Iranian regime could inflict on us.
Trump expected a war of weeks. Americans are paying more at the pump, and a majority say the war has cost more than it is worth. Whatever its eventual strategic result, its political cost is already clear.