Polls show Republicans are staring down a midterm election reckoning

This past spring, I examined public polling that was already flashing danger signs for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Months later, those indicators have not improved; indeed, multiple surveys suggest the incumbent party’s position has deteriorated. These cycles almost never go well for the president’s party, and barring some major surprises, history looks poised to repeat itself in November.

One of the least disastrous polls published in the last few weeks comes via NBC News. While other data have looked considerably worse for the GOP, NBC’s numbers give Democrats a 5-point lead on the so-called generic congressional ballot, several percentage points below the RealClearPolitics average. Perhaps it’s a sign of how dire things may be feeling on Team Red that many Republican-aligned strategists would take this outcome in a heartbeat:

Republicans losing the national “popular” vote by 5 points would likely translate into a modest Democratic House majority, but could well mean the party holds control of the Senate. The latter question could be determined by the fates of GOP Senate candidates in a quartet of states President Donald Trump carried by double-digit margins just two years ago: Alaska (Trump +13), Iowa (Trump +13), Ohio (Trump +11), and Texas (Trump +14). Democrats are currently virtually tied or leading in all four of these races. If the national environment ends up tilting blue by “just” 5 points, key races would have a good chance of being salvaged. And in light of the relative dearth of competitive districts and some of the Republicans’ redistricting successes, the lower-chamber losses would be somewhat mitigated. If that overall margin creeps higher, as other surveys project it might, the political blast radius would expand accordingly.

One of those other polls is the recent New York Times dataset that showed Democrats leading on nearly every single issue. NBC’s numbers aren’t as bruising:

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In this poll, Republicans retain substantial advantages on immigration and crime-related questions but have hemorrhaged trust on voters’ biggest priorities in this cycle: the economy and the cost of living. Some of this is attributable to the Iran conflict, which is at least achieving important national security goals (this piece is worthwhile). Some of it can be chalked up to Trump’s zeal for tariffs. Republicans have some very positive economic results they can point to, but — on balance — that storyline is not breaking through.

On the flip side, as RealClearPolitics founder Tom Bevan noted on my radio show this week, the GOP’s struggles are not making Democrats popular. He said the opposition party maintains a lower favorability rating than the party it is looking to boot out of power. Democrats may succeed for a variety of reasons, but it wouldn’t be because voters are falling in love with them.