President Donald Trump does not need another demonstration that the United States can destroy Iranian assets. He needs a strategy that restores reliable passage through the Strait of Hormuz without making Americans pay for every new round of escalation.
After Iran targeted a U.S. warship and an American base in Jordan, U.S. Central Command said American forces disabled five Iranian crude carriers on Sept. 8. Iran retaliated against shipping and threatened tankers near Gulf terminals. Brent crude then closed above $100 a barrel. America is winning tactical encounters, but commercial traffic remains insecure, and the economic cost keeps rising.
Trump should act on five priorities.
First, define victory. The objective should be safe commercial passage and protection of U.S. forces. Regime change and permanent control of Iranian oil exports are different missions with far higher costs. Washington should identify the Iranian actions that will trigger retaliation and the steps that would produce a pause. Deterrence works best when both consequences and off-ramps are clear.
Second, replace improvised protection with a sustainable transit system. The U.S. has reportedly restricted air-defense coverage for tankers to specific daily windows as nighttime attacks increase. Washington should organize protected routes near Oman, backed by shared surveillance, mine-clearing capability, air defense, and rescue assets. Gulf states, Britain, France, and other capable partners should provide ships, bases, radar, and port support.
Third, require major energy importers to contribute. Before the conflict, Hormuz carried about one-fifth of global petroleum consumption, with most crude traveling to Asian markets. Japan, South Korea, India, and other importers can contribute surveillance, financing, insurance support, or logistical access. China also depends heavily on this trade and should face diplomatic pressure to help secure it.
Fourth, defend the alternatives to Hormuz. Saudi and Emirati pipelines can bypass the strait, although they cannot replace normal Gulf exports. The attack that forced Saudi Arabia to shut its East-West pipeline shows that Iran and its partners understand their importance. Washington should help protect pumping stations and export terminals, speed repairs, and disperse replacement equipment. The administration should also prepare a coordinated release of emergency oil stocks if physical shortages deepen.
Fifth, use Oman’s diplomacy to negotiate reciprocal maritime restraint. Washington should support a verifiable interim arrangement under which Iran stops attacking and threatening commercial shipping while the United States pauses strikes against tankers not engaged in hostile operations. Violations would bring a defined response. Any agreement must reject Iranian sovereignty over the strait and an unrestricted Iranian right to collect transit fees.
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This strategy also addresses the danger at home. Diesel prices move through trucking, farming, construction, and food distribution, so the effects reach far beyond the gas pump. A July Pew Research Center survey found that only 24% of Americans rated economic conditions as good or excellent, while concern about gasoline prices had risen sharply. A prolonged Hormuz crisis would make foreign policy visible on every grocery receipt before the midterm elections.
Iran believes it can endure economic pain longer than American voters will tolerate rising fuel and food prices. Trump should answer with discipline: protect passage, share the burden, secure the bypass routes, and negotiate enforceable rules. The measure of victory is not how many targets America destroys. It is whether ships move safely, energy prices fall, and the conflict ends on terms that protect American interests.
Heyrsh Abdulrahman is a Washington-based senior intelligence analyst, Middle East security specialist, and former Kurdistan Regional Government official. His analysis focuses on Iran, Iraq, Kurdish affairs, and regional security. His work has appeared in The Hill, the Washington Examiner, The Washington Times, The Defense Post, The National Interest, and other international publications.