What if, just five years after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, seven flights departing London’s Heathrow Airport for five American cities and two Canadian cities mysteriously exploded over the Atlantic Ocean? What if this terrorist attack took place in the space of just three hours? What if the United Kingdom had detected no explosives either in the carry-on or checked luggage of the passengers?
Unlike on 9/11, no heroes such as Flight 93’s Todd Beamer or FDNY Battalion Chief Orio Palmer could have mitigated this loss of life. The bombers would have hidden in the bathroom out of sight. And then it would be too late. And while British authorities would likely have banned carry-on liquids as a precaution following the attacks, it would have likely taken them at least a week to figure out that the attackers had smuggled liquid explosives inside bottles made to look like soda drinks, and that they had used both real batteries to power detonators hidden inside hollowed out batteries. Considering these major flight routes, 1,500 to 2,000 people would have been killed in those three hours.
What would have been the ensuing social and economic impact on America, Canada, and the U.K.? Amid the then-chaos of the Iraq War (later ameliorated by the U.S. Marine Corps-led “Anbar Awakening” and U.S. Army-led surge/special operations campaign in the Sunni Triangle), al Qaeda would have appeared to be a rising Phoenix rising from its Afghanistan ashes.
This is not a hypothetical scenario. Indeed, this disaster was only narrowly prevented. And only with unprecedented counterterrorism tensions between the U.S. and the U.K.
The story starts in June 2006.
Suspecting him of links to al Qaeda or aligned groups, British police at London’s Heathrow airport covertly searched Abdullah Ahmed Ali’s bag traveling back to London from Pakistan. They found a large number of batteries and soft drink ingredients. Police and the U.K.’s MI5 domestic spy agency began intensive surveillance of him. Establishing his links to a broader cell, they noted odd behavior, including the purchase of explosives precursors. MI5 secretly bugged the ringleader’s house, discovering that the cell was using it as a bomb factory.
Further investigation showed links between the men and a British-Pakistani al Qaeda commander based in Pakistan, Rashid Rauf. After the plotters were found focusing on seven flight routes, and recorded by MI5 bugs making martyrdom videos, the Bush administration pushed for their immediate arrests. British police were highly reluctant to take that final step, however. They believed that they lacked sufficient court-admissible evidence to ensure convictions. They were also confident that their surveillance operation would prevent the attackers from secretly boarding flights. They hoped that continuing their investigation might identify as-yet-undetected cell members. Tensions between Washington and London grew, with British authorities insisting they had the situation under control.
Directly breaking the two nations’ normally intertwined counterterrorism cooperation, then-CIA Director Mike Hayden took unilateral action. He pressured Pakistani authorities to arrest Rauf. Hayden and the Bush administration knew that doing so would force British authorities to arrest the cell immediately, knowing that the cell would otherwise know they had been compromised and destroy evidence to cover their tracks. The U.K. authorities then made those arrests the next day.
The immediate threat was ended, and the liquid carry-on restrictions we see at airports to this day became the norm. But the story wasn’t over. With the suspects not having yet bought flight tickets or fully constructed their devices at the time of their arrests, the first trial resulted in a deadlock. The suspects claimed they had invented a fictional plot. Further trials eventually secured convictions for 10 men, including the seven attack operatives. Not Rauf, however. He was released by duplicitous Pakistani authorities in a fake breakout. He would finally meet justice in 2008, when the CIA landed a Hellfire missile on his head.
Two points remain.
PUTIN’S DESPERATE DAYTIME DRONE ATTACKS COULD BE HIS UNDOING
First, considering that three of the attack operatives, Arafat Waheed Khan, Ibrahim Savant, and Waheed Zaman, have had or will have parole hearings this month through the end of the year, the Justice Department should identify any unadjudicated offenses for which these terrorists might face prosecution on U.S. soil.
Second, as we remember the victims of 9/11 then, we should take a moment to remember the counterterrorism officers, and those of our allies, who have prevented further atrocities over the past 25 years.