Perhaps the truest metaphor for U.S. foreign policy today is Charlie Brown trying to kick a football, only to have his friend Lucy pull it away at the last minute, leaving him flat on his back.
The United States leans on allies, especially in times of crisis. There is nothing wrong with this. Where U.S. administrations go wrong is the belief that allies do not hedge. Wishful thinking is a bipartisan problem. The Clinton and Obama administrations believed China was more partner than adversary, and President Joe Biden was blind to Germany’s double-dealing on Russia and Iran.
President Donald Trump, with his highly personalized brand of foreign policy, remains especially susceptible. As the 25th anniversary of 9/11 approaches, he relies on Pakistan to mediate with Iran, never mind that Pakistani generals have never fully accounted for how they came to shelter al Qaeda founder Osama bin Laden just a stone’s throw from Pakistan’s equivalent of West Point. The same holds true with Saudi Arabia, whose leadership today again embraces Islamists while avoiding any serious effort to uproot the networks that allowed Saudi elites to perpetrate the worst terrorist attack on American soil.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, too, has become a White House whisperer. Even as the murder rate of women increased 1,400% in Turkey, President Barack Obama spoke about how he turned to Erdogan for advice on raising daughters. The Turkish leader positioned himself to Trump as an indispensable partner who could not only stabilize Syria and Lebanon, but also Gaza and the Horn of Africa. Meanwhile, Turkey promotes the most radical elements in Syrian politics, attacks and marginalizes the most progressive and pro-American units, and supports Hamas, a designated terrorist group, over the Palestinian Authority. Turkey is increasingly working with the most radical, anti-American, and pro-Chinese elements in Somalia while working to undermine the stability of pro-Western, democratic Somaliland. Qatar, of course, plays a similar game, often financing Turkey’s actions while wining and dining and offering the president and his inner circle commercial deals.
Among diplomats and analysts, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Qatar’s double game is well-known. The recent Mecca Pact — a Saudi attempt to create a mutual defense alliance akin to a Sunni NATO — only formalizes these countries’ long drift away from the West.
Other countries, however, play a double game but still manage to fly under the radar. Consider Azerbaijan: It positions itself today as an energy alternative to Russia and Iran, but it sells both Russian and Iranian oil through its pipelines and has become the region’s top money laundering hub. Azerbaijan’s cheerleaders in Washington and Jerusalem often point to its assistance to Israel during the Iran War, a fact undoubtedly true, but they ignore that Baku seeks to be just as helpful to Iran. Consider Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who attested to just how helpful Azerbaijan was to Iran during the war with Israel and the United States in a recent Persian television interview. Azerbaijan “accompanied us and provided assistance with everything that was necessary,” he said.
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Azerbaijan’s general positions have not changed; it simply engages in a game of good cop-bad cop with Turkey to advance the same policy goals that Erdogan does, all the while furthering business deals with the Jewish state and blunting the possibility of U.S. sanctions.
President Ronald Reagan famously quipped to Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev that Washington would “trust but verify.” Somewhere over the past decades, trust remained, but the ability to objectively verify withered. Until U.S. presidents recognize that their best friends and favorite partners sometimes lie to their face, America’s place in the world will continue to erode.
Michael Rubin is director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, a distinguished fellow at India’s Usanas Foundation, and a contributor to Beltway Confidential.