CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow this week comes as U.S. intelligence warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be prepared to escalate against NATO. Washington must use this moment to send a simple message to Moscow: Russia cannot attack the West from the shadows and expect the West to stay silent.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shattered the veil of the post-Cold War European security order, but Moscow’s challenge to the West extends well beyond the battlefield. The Kremlin is using hybrid warfare tools to test NATO’s cohesion, readiness, and political resolve. Cyberattacks, GPS interference, propaganda, espionage, sabotage, and military provocations allow Russia to pressure its neighbors without launching conventional attacks. By keeping its actions below the threshold of open war, Moscow makes it harder for NATO to agree on how and when to respond.
Russia has already seen what a first round of testing NATO can look like. In May 2023, Serbian protesters attacked NATO’s KFOR peacekeepers in Kosovo, injuring more than 90 troops, while Serbia, one of Moscow’s closest European allies, remained at the center of the escalating crisis. NATO chose not to confront the larger strategic challenge. For Moscow, the lesson was clear: NATO could be tested at its periphery without triggering war. Is Russia now preparing round two?
The Baltic region is particularly vulnerable. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania sit directly on NATO’s frontier, trapped between Belorussia and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, and Moscow has recently been testing the limits of the alliance. Russian electronic warfare has disrupted GPS and navigation systems across the region, with Lithuania warning that signals originating from Kaliningrad can be spoofed hundreds of miles into Europe. Ukrainian drones have also repeatedly ended up in Baltic NATO airspace as a result of this spoofing. In May, Moscow escalated its rhetoric by falsely accusing Latvia of allowing Ukraine to use its territory to launch drones against Russia and warning Riga that “NATO membership will not protect you.” More recently, Poland and the Baltic states have increased security around critical infrastructure amid concerns about possible Russian false-flag operations designed to create confusion and test NATO’s response.
Russia’s campaign against Western Europe is already visible. In Germany, multiple explosive-filled drones, resembling drones used by Russia in Ukraine, have been found around the Leipzig airport. In Britain, the U.K.’s National Cyber Security Centre has warned that Russian groups continue to target British organizations, particularly local governments and critical-infrastructure operators. In France, authorities have investigated suspected Russian-linked election interference, espionage, and a foiled assassination attempt on a Russian human rights activist.
The Kremlin has repeatedly stated that the West is provoking Moscow and will attack Russia first. Russian officials have tried to frame the war in Ukraine as a larger conflict between NATO and Russia, with Ukraine acting as a proxy for Western capitals. To justify a possible attack on the Baltics, Russian officials have already emphasized that the European states plan to launch an expanded hybrid war against Moscow.
Putin is also giving Moscow another possible pretext to intervene abroad. On May 25, 2026, he signed a law allowing Russia to deploy its military to protect Russian citizens detained or prosecuted overseas. It gives the Kremlin a new legal justification for intervention in former Soviet states, and Russia’s neighbors should take notice.
Latvian intelligence has warned that Russia is preparing to initiate hybrid attacks on NATO’s Eastern flanks. Riga believes that Putin’s goal of trying to end the alliance’s support of Ukraine may be coupled with exaggerated or inaccurate intelligence he receives about NATO’s weak resolve.
Russia is testing NATO, and it is time to stop absorbing the blows and start imposing costs. The West needs to close the gaps Moscow is exploiting and make clear that every provocation carries a price.
First, NATO needs a clear readiness plan for Russian aggression in the Baltics. It should define escalation thresholds, identify forces ready to deploy, and establish procedures for a rapid Allied response.
Second, NATO has tools to counter information operations, but it needs a formal capacity to protect Allied command and control in the information environment. In a conflict, Moscow will target NATO’s decision-making, and Russia’s C2 modeling and influence campaigns show that decision-making itself can become a target.
Third, Washington is sending mixed signals. On one hand, the CIA director is warning Moscow not to test NATO. On the other hand, Elbridge Colby, undersecretary of war for policy, is pressing the alliance to take more responsibility as Washington considers reducing its military troops in Europe further. If we believe Putin may test NATO, this is no time for ambiguity. NATO needs to do more, but Putin needs to hear one clear message: NATO is united.
Fourth, NATO members should declassify Russian plans and intelligence whenever possible, as they did before Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Exposing Moscow’s intentions can disrupt its plans, strengthen Allied unity, and deny Russia the advantage of surprise.
Putin is testing NATO because he believes the West will hesitate. He should have no such confidence. NATO must close the gaps Russia exploits, expose its aggression, and make the consequences unmistakable. Peace depends on deterrence, and deterrence depends on making Moscow believe that when NATO says “we will respond,” it means it.