John Fetterman faces a choice in Pennsylvania: Does he want to be a Democrat, or does he want to be a senator? By the time the 2028 elections roll around, he will not be able to be both.
A New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll laid clear Fetterman’s standing in the state once again. Among Pennsylvania Republicans, Fetterman has a favorability rating of 73%, 10 points higher than the state’s GOP senator, Dave McCormick. Independents view Fetterman favorably as well, by a 49% to 36% split. But Pennsylvania Democrats give Fetterman failing grades, with his favorability sitting at just 22% compared to an unfavorable rating of 63%.
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Fetterman is simply too emotionally sane and too supportive of killing Palestinian terrorists to fit in the modern Democratic Party. He has spoken out forcefully against socialist Democrats and their antisemitic, anti-American rhetoric and policies. Conor Lamb, who Fetterman defeated in the 2022 Senate primary, has begun circling the seat again, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) all but jumping on the Lamb bandwagon last year for a possible primary rematch.
Even if you assume that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and other top Democrats convince Lamb to stand down and be a team player, Fetterman will almost certainly face some socialist affiliated candidate. He or she will call Fetterman a closet Republican and accuse him of supporting the “genocide” of Palestinians, and with Fetterman’s low scores among Democratic voters, he will lose, regardless of how much help Schumer provides him.
That leaves Fetterman with two options going forward. The one he insists on holding to thus far is going down with the ship, accepting the fight in the Democratic Party, and, as a result, being out of office by January 2029. Regardless of how stubbornly Fetterman insists he can win, the political gravity is too great. He will be a Democrat, but no longer a senator.
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Or Fetterman could jump ship and join the Republican Party, an idea that has been discussed louder in political circles as 2028 approaches. He is already extremely popular among Republicans, and a double-digit favorability among independents means he would be the heavy favorite to beat anyone (of either party) in a general election. The only way he gets to a general election in 2028, though, would be as a Republican. He could still be a senator, but no longer a Democrat.
Those are the two options Fetterman faces, but if he wants to choose the latter, he is running out of time. After all, Republicans like him as a Democrat, but the standards change if he becomes a Republican. He would have GOP goodwill, but he would need to polish some Republican credentials as well. It is the only path forward for him to be anything other than a one-term senator.