In his September 2023 address to the United Nations General Assembly, the late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi warned that “the blood of the oppressed will not be forgotten, and the ropes of the guilty will bring them to justice.”
Three years later, media attention is focused on President Donald Trump’s use of a catering truck to secretly switch planes before leaving last month’s NATO summit in Turkey. Trump did so on U.S. Secret Service advice amid an Iranian assassination threat.
Raisi’s rhetoric hints at why the threat to Trump isn’t going away. Indeed, as long as the Islamic Republic of Iran exists, it will aggressively seek Trump’s premature demise. It doesn’t matter whether it’s now, a year from now, or ten years from now, Iran desperately wants Trump dead. The rationale for this murderous fixation finds its root at a unique intersection of vengeance and theologically vested history.
Let’s start with the history. The Iranian regime adopts a Khomeinist interpretation of Twelver Shia theology. This ideology places extreme emphasis on valiant resistance against more powerful, unjust, and oppressive foes. It means lionizing those who give their lives as martyrs to this cause. Most notably, Husayn ibn Ali’s death against an Umayyad force at the 7th-century Battle of Karbala.
That brings us back to Trump. After all, Trump has done more to offend the Iranian regime’s ideology than anyone in history.
First, there was Trump’s January 2020 order to kill Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Soleimani was responsible for killing hundreds of Americans and wounding thousands more in Iraq. Many were struck with brutal, explosively-formed penetrators which turned their armored vehicles into shrapnel centrifuges. Soleimani masterminded numerous other devastating attacks against the U.S., including a 2011 effort to blow up Washington, D.C.’s Cafe Milano restaurant.
But while his death was due, Soleimani was also a prized partner of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He was regarded by the regime as the finest living proof of Iran’s destiny to reign over the Middle East. His loss struck Iran a severe theological and strategic blow.
Khamenei’s response was rapid. He directed the Guard and his Ministry of Intelligence to develop plans to kill Trump and top officials in his first administration. Others on the target list included, as first reported by the Washington Examiner, former national security advisor John Bolton and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. This led to extensive (and expensive) security details being provided to them and other officials, though Trump later revoked them. Iran subsequently pursued numerous assassination plots against Trump and others.
Then came this year’s war on Iran and the Feb. 28 killing of Khamenei himself.
As supreme leader, Khamenei was regarded by regime ideologues as God’s ordained and most important human servant. They saw him as the ultimate custodian of Islamic justice, a caretaker awaiting the return of the Mahdi (a servant of the Prophet Muhammad, who they believe is currently in physical hiding). By eliminating Khamenei, Trump thus transformed himself from a mortal enemy of the regime to the Iranian equivalent of the Antichrist. Iran believes its holy justice must be purified in the president’s blood and that of his family.
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Whether more directly or through organized crime groups, then, the Islamic Republic is going to keep trying to assassinate Trump. Nothing but the demise of the regime or Trump will change this.
Trump may see himself as a leader uniquely able to move a foreign policy relationship from animus to accord. He may often be right in that regard. But Iran sees his fate as sealed. No offers of diplomacy or new military threats will alter this understanding in Tehran. Hence why Trump is receiving such extensive Secret Service precautionary measures, and why these measures will extend long into the future.