America’s war with Iran is at an impasse. President Donald Trump’s unfulfilled threats to launch a “major strike” are partly to blame. By constantly promising to strike the Islamic Republic only to back off at the last moment, Trump has undercut America’s leverage and made Iran less, not more, likely to negotiate in good faith.
The United States went to war for all the right reasons. Trump has been clear and consistent that Iran, the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, must not obtain nuclear weapons. But Tehran refuses to set aside its nuclear ambitions or its millenarian ambitions to destroy Israel and conquer the Middle East.
If anything, U.S. military action against Tehran was belated. The Islamic Republic has been at war with the United States for nearly half a century. It has created, trained, and funded terrorist groups, and its proxies span the globe.
The Islamic Republic was behind the murder of 603 American servicemen during Operation Iraqi Freedom alone, and thousands more were left grievously injured.
Iran’s terror campaign extended to American shores. The Iranian regime has plotted to assassinate top U.S. officials, including Trump himself.
So when the Trump administration launched Operation Epic Fury on Feb. 28, it did so with just cause.
The opening stages of the conflict went well. The U.S. and Israel carried out the largest decapitation strike in modern military history. The upper echelons of Iran’s military and political leadership were eliminated, and the country’s defense industrial base was severely degraded.
Washington and Jerusalem quickly controlled Iran’s skies, and the regime’s navy was largely destroyed. American and Israeli losses were comparatively few.
But Tehran had two aces up its sleeve: It could strike America’s Arab allies in the region, and it seized control of the Strait of Hormuz. It has used both to devastating effect.
On April 7, a mere 38 days into the war, Trump announced what was supposed to be a temporary two-week ceasefire. Iran was offered the chance to come to terms. This started the steady loss of leverage.
Iran continually violated the ceasefire and has made a mockery of Trump’s frequent efforts to negotiate a settlement.
On June 17, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding. They agreed to a 14-point framework for ending military operations, reopening the strait for 60 days, and providing a chance for final negotiations. Iran violated the understanding within a week.
A clear and predictable pattern has emerged in which Iran attacks the U.S. and its allies, causing death and damage, and the Trump administration responds halfheartedly, unwilling either to resume war or declare victory and walk away.
Revealingly, Iran has largely refrained from launching major attacks against Israel on the scale of those it has launched against America’s Gulf allies. It knows Israel would hit back hard.
Trump expresses frustration with Iran’s recalcitrance, but he never closes the option of further negotiation, which in Tehran simply means obstruction. Meanwhile, Iran continues to hold the strait and portions of the global economy hostage. It has also used breaks in hostilities to rebuild its military capabilities.
America risks losing. The administration’s willingness to keep pretending to believe Iranian promises is, at this point, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
On seven occasions, Trump has warned he would launch “devastating strikes” only to fail to do so. What strikes have been launched have been pinpricks compared with the president’s bellicose rhetoric.
Half-measures are useless, for prolonged war favors Iran, and if Trump thinks Tehran will not be happy to string him along through the midterm elections, he is fooling himself and grossly miscalculating.
The U.S. is losing credibility with its allies and enemies alike. Warfare is deadly serious business. You must fight to win or not fight at all. As Gen. Douglas MacArthur said, “In war, there is no substitute for victory.” The time for choosing has long since arrived.