No teeth, no peace: Why Trump’s Gaza deal will collapse

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The Trump administration’s Board of Peace road map promises Hamas disarmament in exchange for phased Israeli withdrawals. Yet, predictable disputes over sequencing already signal collapse. While the Oct. 7, 2023, butchers demand immediate Israeli retreat, Jerusalem rightly conditions any pullback on verified demilitarization. This arrangement is not statecraft; it is an exercise in self-delusion that guarantees a brief intermission before the terror resumes.

Hamas transformed Gaza’s 365 square kilometers into a subterranean fortress, boring 350 to 650 kilometers of tunnels with 5,700 shafts. Yahya Sinwar boasted of 500 kilometers — longer than New York’s subway. Even during ceasefires, Israeli troops still uncover complex seven-kilometer routes housing dozens of hideouts. Over 15 years of iron-fist dictatorship, Hamas cynically plundered $1 billion — averaging $3 million per major tunnel — by hijacking civilian cement and steel for terrorist infrastructure.

American and Western diplomats remain blind to a stark equation: rejectionist ideology plus Iranian cash equals inevitable terrorist reconstitution. Since 2005, Gaza-based groups have fired over 50,000 projectiles at Israel, sustained by a $100 million to $350 million lifeline from Tehran to Hamas and its “Axis of Resistance.” This machine feeds on the West; Hamas extracts a 20% to 25% parasitic tax on humanitarian aid, augmented by rampant theft. Consequently, the World Bank, United Nations, and European Union estimate reconstruction for the Mediterranean enclave at a staggering $71 billion — seven times the cost of every prior rebuild combined. Inevitably, rebuilding without dismantling this terrorist ecosystem simply finances the next war.

After the 2006 Lebanon War, U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701 tasked an expanded UNIFIL force with keeping southern Lebanon free from nonstate weapons. Hezbollah ignored the mandate, rebuilt its arsenal under blue helmets, and prepared the next confrontation. Consequently, international monitoring without teeth enabled the very rearmament it purported to prevent. Gaza’s current road map risks the identical outcome.

The reality is that three measures rooted in Congress, the White House, and the U.S.-Israel alliance can transform the map into an enforceable strategy and allow the Trump agreement to proceed so IDF withdrawals can begin.

First, Congress must pass a Gaza Demilitarization Verification Act requiring continuous commercial and military satellite imagery plus artificial intelligence anomaly detection of shaft activity and dual-use material flows. Real-time feeds shared with Israel would trigger automatic suspension of reconstruction funds upon confirmed violations. Through this mechanism, treasury and intelligence reporting on residual Iranian pipelines would feed the same triggers, turning monitoring into leverage rather than after-action reports.

Second, the White House must establish a permanent U.S.-Israel Joint Security Directorate for Gaza under existing alliance structures. This body alone would certify every phase of weapon storage, tunnel destruction, and force deployment. An Israeli operational veto over any international stabilization contingent would block the insertion of actors whose interests diverge from permanent demilitarization. By doing so, American technical capacity and political weight would underwrite Israeli security requirements instead of diluting them through bankrupt multilateral consensus.

MEET THE GAZA ATHLETES UNMASKED AS TERRORISTS

Finally, Congress must further condition every dollar coming from the Board of Peace funding on an annual certification that Iranian financing channels to residual Gaza groups remain severed. At the same time, intelligence community assessments of the Guard transfer networks would supply and legitimize the evidence. Failure to achieve this would freeze U.S. contributions and activate secondary sanctions on third-party facilitators, linking Gaza outcomes directly to the broader campaign against Tehran’s regional architecture.

Manifestly, this framework transforms a naive checklist into an aggressive strategy of denial. Tunnels, cash, and rockets represent threats to dismantle, not concessions to be traded. Only America’s pressure, fused with Israeli primacy, can smash this continuum of aid diversion. Without enforcement teeth, Washington merely underwrites an ephemeral pause before terrorism returns.

Jose Lev Alvarez is an American–Israeli scholar specializing in international security policy. A multilingual veteran of the IDF special forces and the U.S. Army, he holds three master’s degrees and is completing a Ph.D. in Intelligence and Global Security in the Washington, D.C., area.

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