The acrimonious nature of divorce proceedings often renders the records an unreliable game of he-said-she-said, with grand accusations lobbed at one another but frequently with little evidence to back them up.
The divorce proceedings of Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) and Republican strategist Emily Moreno are not one of those cases.
Audio recordings corroborate an allegation by Moreno, the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), that Miller threw hot water on her. Moreno has photos of bruises and injuries from two instances she alleges Miller abused her, including the aforementioned water-throwing allegation, and once when she claims Miller pushed her into a wall. While a county investigation into whether Miller had abused his and Moreno’s toddler daughter was ultimately inconclusive, the girl was discovered to have a broken collarbone with a bruise one of the investigators described as a “handprint” after Moreno saw the injury and took her daughter to the hospital with the suspicion that Miller had been the culprit.
The only question regarding Max Miller’s career is not if it will end, but when, because even if Miller does not bow out of his reelection bid now, voters will likely end it in November.
To be clear, Miller was already a weak candidate before the domestic abuse allegations went public. He won reelection with 51% of the vote, the same night Donald Trump won 55% support in Miller’s district. The seat has a Cook PVI of R+5, which means in a midterm election where Democrats will have the advantage as the party out of power — and specifically in Ohio, where the party is energized with the opportunity to pick up control of a Senate seat and the governor’s mansion — Miller’s seat is far from a safe bet for any Republican, let alone such a scandal-laden one.
Politico polled voters on whether they would stick by candidates based on hypothetical scandals and found that 2 in 5 Trump 2024 voters would dump a candidate accused of domestic violence. Caveat that with the bevy of evidence corroborating Moreno’s claims alongside the fact that she’s the daughter of an inoffensive senator who beat a Democratic incumbent of nearly two decades, and it seems like that a crucial slice of swing voters and centrist Republican voters will, at minimum, ignore the bottom of the ballot in Ohio’s 7th District.
MAX MILLER CALLS FOR HOUSE INVESTIGATION INTO HIMSELF
The correct reason to force Miller out of the race is that credibly accused domestic abusers should not serve in Congress. But the pragmatic reason for Republicans should be that Miller will lose if he doesn’t bow out now. If he withdraws his bid by Wednesday, then Republicans in the district have the chance to choose a new nominee. After that point, if Miller refuses to withdraw, prospective candidates have only until later this month to submit their names for write-in consideration. By September, the decision would be restricted.
Miller probably cannot win even if he wanted to, and he could threaten the GOP’s control of the Senate and Ohio’s governorship if he’s allowed to ride out his campaign. His career is likely over, and it’s just a matter if he wants to drag down the rest of the party with him.