Iran has released a new video entitled “Where to Kill Melania?” It suggests how first lady Melania Trump might be murdered, ending with a threat to President Donald Trump‘s son, Barron.
While obviously unpleasant, this video is not supposed to be an assassination guide. Instead, it is designed to foster American fear and boost the Iranian regime’s confidence.
Iran certainly does pose a threat to the first family. Its ideology imbued with narratives of martyrdom and vengeance, the regime has long sought to avenge Trump’s January 2020 killing of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani. Iran’s desire for retribution has only grown since the elimination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei earlier this year. As with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former national security advisor John Bolton, anyone Iran deems responsible for these killings will remain in its crosshairs.
It is unsurprising, then, that Guard-affiliated media produced the Melania Trump video. But as with other Guard videos, such as a 2022 video threatening to kill Trump in a drone attack as he played golf, this latest release is all about propaganda.
The video starts by claiming that its source information is drawn from “anonymous security networks” and “satellite imagery.” This is the first tell that the video isn’t very serious. Rather than evincing Guard penetration into classified U.S. government networks, the video relies on publicly available information. It rightly notes Melania’s penchant for high-end fashion. But it then claims that Melania regularly visits certain high-end clothing stores in New York City. In reality, reporting suggests that Melania uses stylists to make clothing purchases. Secret Service protocols suggest these purchases are either made through trusted intermediaries of a stylist or under non-descript names. The video’s identification of certain stylists is only intended to intimidate those individuals.
Next, the video recommends that would-be attackers conduct surveillance of the listed clothing stores in order to spot Secret Service advance teams (which screen and secure locations). Inspired assassins are then advised to make friends with staff at hospitals that might treat Melania Trump in the aftermath of an attack. But while these somewhat detailed recommendations might seem ominous, they reflect only a basic recognition of Secret Service tactics. Moreover, conducting surveillance at multiple stores takes large, very well-trained teams who would have to know how to avoid Secret Service counter-surveillance. This would be an extraordinarily resource-intensive effort involving dozens of personnel. It’s unserious.
Still, the biggest tell that this video is all about propaganda comes with its suggested method of attack. It’s not that enduring Secret Service concern of an assassin with a firearm pretending to be a supporter or member of the press (as in the 1981 Reagan assassination attempt). No, it’s the smearing of the VX nerve agent on clothes in anticipation of their delivery to Melania. Again, it sounds scary because that’s the point. But as a potential assassination tactic, it is beyond absurd.
VX is indeed a very lethal chemical weapon. But VX is also exceptionally complex to produce and deploy without detection or inadvertent exposure. Purchasing the precursor materials and then assembling a viable weapon would take advanced scientific expertise and a very expensive facility. Fulfilling these requirements would trigger priority U.S. intelligence community alerts at numerous stages. Similarly, smuggling a prefabricated VX weapon onto U.S. soil would be difficult but not impossible. But it would also depend on collaboration with nations that possess that weapon, such as China, Russia, North Korea (or perhaps Iran). The risks of blowback/retaliation for those nations would be severe.
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Most obviously, however, because VX has an oily consistency, it would be visible on any clothes it was spread upon. This would expose members of staff/other customers to the item before it ever got to the first lady. But even if that somehow didn’t happen, the Secret Service’s chemical weapons detection systems would almost certainly detect the substance.
Put simply, the Guard is doing here what it loves most: seeking to terrorize its enemies. But the deserved response to this video is not fear, but rather that of disdain — both for the purveyors of this video and for the farcical nature of their threat.