Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has inherited the socialist lane for Democratic presidential primaries from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and the country should be prepared to face that fact in the 2028 elections.
A recently released University of New Hampshire poll put Ocasio-Cortez’s support in the Granite State at 22%, just ahead of former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s 21%. This resembles the 2020 Democratic primary results in New Hampshire, where Sanders defeated Buttigieg 25%-24%. More notably, Ocasio-Cortez has seen forward momentum in the state, with University of New Hampshire polling showing her jump from 14% in October 2025 and 15% in February 2026 to the 22% at which she sits now.
This does not necessarily mean that Ocasio-Cortez will be the nominee. Former Vice President Kamala Harris is still the polling favorite, and would benefit the most if Democrats keep South Carolina at the front of the primary calendar. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) is the most likely nominee, and he would benefit the most if Nevada is placed at the front of the calendar, as he led a November 2025 poll over a second-place Buttigieg 37%-19%. Harris or Newsom (or Buttigieg) would represent the “establishment” side of the primary, which prevailed over Sanders in both 2016 and 2020.
Still, Sanders was the top challenger in both of those cycles, and Ocasio-Cortez has other things going for her that Sanders did not. For one, Sanders has helped shift the party further leftward, to the point that Democratic voters in New York City and Maine were happy to embrace socialist candidates Zohran Mamdani and Graham Platner, respectively.
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The other key thing cutting in Ocasio-Cortez’s favor is that all three of her top opponents (Harris, Newsom, and Buttigieg) would all more or less be competing for the same voters in a Democratic primary. Here is how the University of New Hampshire summarized the ideological breakdown of its poll: “Nearly half of socialists and one-third of progressives support Ocasio-Cortez, while pluralities of liberals and moderates support Buttigieg. [Arizona Sen. Mark] Kelly draws much of his support from liberals, while Newsom draws most from moderates.”
The longer that Harris, Newsom, and Buttigieg (all of whom will almost certainly run) stay in the race, the more they divide the field and allow the further-left voters who back Ocasio-Cortez to decide the race. And, with the national Democratic Party becoming more and more accepting of Ocasio-Cortez’s socialist ideas and allies, the Bernie Sanders path could finally be a winning one, putting an avowed socialist one general election away from the White House.