For years, Iran’s rulers have believed they could wage war against the United States without paying the full price. They armed proxies, launched drones, threatened American allies, and expanded their missile arsenal while betting that Washington would answer with limited, carefully calibrated retaliation.
If the reported deaths of two U.S. service members in Jordan mark yet another direct Iranian attack, that assumption must finally end. U.S. Central Command has confirmed the deaths amid an escalating exchange between Washington and Tehran.
The question facing President Donald Trump is no longer whether Iran is willing to escalate. It is whether the U.S. will restore the deterrence that has steadily eroded over years of restraint.
Every attack that goes unanswered — or is met with only symbolic retaliation — teaches Tehran the same lesson: America fears escalation more than the Islamic Republic does. That perception encourages the next missile launch, the next drone strike, and the next attack on American troops.
The regime’s military strategy has never depended on defeating the U.S. conventionally. It depends on making aggression inexpensive. Iran uses the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, missile forces, drones, proxy militias, and economic leverage to impose costs while avoiding consequences severe enough to threaten the regime’s survival.
That calculation should change.
The objective should not be another open-ended war in the Middle East. It should be restoring deterrence by degrading the military infrastructure that enables future attacks. Missile production facilities, drone manufacturing sites, command-and-control centers, and other military assets that directly support attacks on U.S. personnel should remain legitimate military considerations if Iran continues its aggression.
Economic pressure is equally important. Tehran finances its military machine through oil exports that underwrite the Guard, proxy organizations, and weapons production. Sanctions enforcement should be strengthened to deny the regime the resources it uses to destabilize the region.
Diplomacy also has a role but only when backed by credible leverage. Negotiations conducted while Iran continues attacking the public risk convincing the regime that violence produces concessions instead of consequences.
The U.S. has spent decades trying to manage the Iranian threat. Management has not changed the regime’s behavior. It has merely allowed Tehran to refine its methods.
ROME JUST ASKED THE IRAN QUESTION TRUMP CAN NO LONGER IGNORE
The deaths of American service members should mark more than another tragic chapter in a long war. They should serve as a reminder that deterrence is not preserved through words alone. It is preserved when America’s adversaries believe that attacking U.S. forces will jeopardize the very capabilities and strategic advantages they rely upon.
Peace is strongest when aggression is unmistakably costly. Tehran must once again believe that truth.
Heyrsh Abdulrahman is a Washington-based senior intelligence analyst and former Kurdistan Regional Government official. He writes on U.S. foreign policy, Middle East security, Iraqi politics, and regional affairs. His analysis and commentary have appeared in major U.S., Middle Eastern, and international news outlets.