“All my experience with Iran, which is quite extensive, is that they are inveterate liars in their negotiating technique,” former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told me this week. “They believe in tiring out their opponents with endless procrastination and obfuscation. And they’re not sincere. So, I think it is no surprise that it is proving very difficult to get a deal. I understand President Trump’s frustration.”
Less than a month after the United States and Iran signed a memorandum intended to stop the fighting and create 60 days for negotiations, military exchanges have resumed, the Strait of Hormuz is again heavily restricted, and President Donald Trump has declared the interim ceasefire over. The June 17 memorandum signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian now seems very distant. The document was meant to reopen commercial passage through the strait while talks addressed Iran’s nuclear program and other unresolved disputes. Instead, its vague language produced competing interpretations.
“It was always the assumption that if the Iranians closed the Straits of Hormuz, they would be cutting their own throat,” Johnson said in a phone call. “That sadly has not turned out to be the case. We have to make it the case. In other words, we have to make the Straits of Hormuz redundant for the purposes of Western economies. And that’s the only way through this thing. There’s no question that a big mistake has been made on the chessboard by our side.”
Johnson is right. Western strategy rested on the assumption that Iran’s dependence on oil exports would prevent it from seriously obstructing the waterway. Tehran has instead shown that it is prepared to impose damage on itself when that damage also raises energy prices and forces Washington to negotiate under pressure.
“The biggest mistake was underestimating Iran’s power over the Straits of Hormuz,” Johnson said. “That has now got to be logistically neutralized. I don’t know what the answers are, whether it’s pipelines or whatever else. But the U.S. has got to come up with a better solution.”
Gulf governments have already developed plans for pipelines and terminals that bypass the strait, but the alternatives cannot replace all of the oil and gas carried through the waterway, and expanding those routes would require years of heavy investment in alternative export infrastructure, as well as protection for routes through the Red Sea and elsewhere.
Johnson has long supported a hard line against Tehran, but he acknowledges the limits of air-campaigning against a country that keeps nearly 90 million people under oppression. “President Trump is the first American president to authorize use of force against Iran,” Johnson said. “It’s quite a remarkable thing. He’s definitely changed the terms of the debate. But it is very difficult to force a regime change without a commitment of the kind that I just don’t think anybody is prepared to make. The only way to do it like that is to treat it like Germany in 1945. And that’s just not going to happen.”
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Whether the current escalation ends in a deal or another round of war remains uncertain. Johnson, however, rejects the idea that Trump’s gamble will either demonstrate American power or its limits.
“President Trump has greatly degraded Iran’s military capabilities. He has caused real problems for the regime,” Johnson said. “He tried something very bold, and unfortunately, it turned out not to be well thought through. But the impression the world has got is that America is willing to try things that are very bold and very difficult, which is not necessarily a bad thing.”