President Donald Trump‘s January opening gambit with respect to Venezuela has been brilliant. He distracted the world with grand Kabuki theater — assembling a U.S. naval armada and posse of 15,000 soldiers in the Caribbean together with diversionary attacks on alleged drug traffickers in the high seas — while orchestrating a virtually bloodless palace coup managed by regime insiders (led by Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez), which culminated in the abduction and rendition of former Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro by U.S. special forces, who is now incarcerated in the United States awaiting trial.
Although the opportunity has been created, the desired end state for Venezuela has yet to be articulated.
Unfortunately, since February, Trump has been preoccupied with his war on Iran, so his attention is clearly elsewhere. More surprisingly, however, no senior decision-maker in the Trump administration, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, has visited Venezuela post-regime change.
The initial euphoria was shattered on June 24 by an act of God — twin earthquakes in Caracas and surrounding areas. The preliminary death toll is about 4,500 people, and initial physical damage has been estimated to be about $37 billion.
Ignoring Venezuela risks snatching defeat from victory. Why does Venezuela matter?
Simply put, Venezuela is the key to the energy security of the U.S. for the foreseeable future. Washington, together with Caracas, will have to find a politically acceptable pathway to unlock Venezuela’s oil potential. A mutually beneficial bargain beckons: energy security for the U.S. in return for economic security for Venezuela.
Venezuela is a sleeping oil giant with the world’s largest proven oil reserves of about 303.8 billion barrels. By comparison, Saudi Arabia’s proven oil reserves amount to about 258.6 billion barrels, the second largest globally. The comparable figure for the U.S. is a mere 38.2 billion barrels. Manifestly, ensuring exclusive control over access to Venezuela’s oil resources, which are in America’s backyard, is a vital national interest of the U.S.
The Americas have been the core of the U.S.’s sphere of influence for over two centuries. In what became known as the Monroe Doctrine, James Monroe, in his 1823 message to Congress, first articulated the concept that the Americas were a vital national interest of the U.S.
Indeed, Venezuela has been the catalyst for an expansive interpretation of the scope of the Monroe Doctrine to include U.S. intervention in border disputes (1895 Olney Corollary) and in financial and other disputes likely to trigger international policing efforts (1904 Roosevelt Corollary). Trump has been very clear that the Monroe Doctrine also means that any entity (whether state or nonstate, local or foreign) whose interests are inimical to those of the U.S. will not be allowed to gain control of or access to the oil resources of Venezuela or any other country of the Americas.
The energy security of the U.S. cannot be taken for granted.
In its 2026 Annual Energy Outlook, the Department of Energy projects that in 2026, U.S. oil production will be about 13.5 million barrels per day, while domestic oil consumption will amount to about 20.7 million bpd. By 2045, oil production will shrink to about 12.9 million bpd, and oil consumption will decline to about 17.1 million bpd. Simply put, the U.S. will have an oil production deficit of about 4 million to 7 million bpd for the next 20 years. To close this gap resulting from consumption consistently exceeding production, the U.S. would have to increase oil production by almost 50%. This is an unrealistic and unsustainable prospect given the level of its proven oil reserves.
There is another facet of U.S. energy insecurity that is embedded in the mismatch in the quality of the oil that the U.S. produces and the capability of U.S. refineries to process such oil. As the Energy Department notes, the surge in new domestic oil production is shale oil (or tight oil), which is characterized as light oil. American refineries are configured to process heavy oil — the type of non-shale oil originally produced in Texas and California, and currently in Canada and Venezuela.
As a result of the mismatch between the quality of oil produced domestically and the quality of oil that domestic refineries can process, the U.S. exports its light oil and imports heavy oil. For example, in 2024, Canada accounted for about 75% of total U.S. heavy oil imports of 1.5 billion barrels. Obviously, this means that the U.S. is highly dependent on a single country with respect to heavy oil imports. Given the extraordinarily high cost of reconfiguring domestic refineries, the U.S. will have to be satisfied to rely on Canada or diversify the sources of heavy oil imports. Venezuela is the ideal alternative.
Venezuela is a failing state that is, as a practical matter, financially bankrupt. According to statistics reported by the International Monetary Fund, as of 2026, the size of Venezuela’s economy was about $111 billion (as measured by gross domestic product), while government debt was about 309% of GDP. The average inflation rate was about 387%, and the unemployment rate was estimated to be about 36%. An economic earthquake is imminent.
Venezuela’s oil sector, the backbone of the economy, has collapsed over the past 25 years. Crude oil production has plunged nearly 70% from about 2.9 million bpd in 2000 to 0.9 million bpd in 2024.
FORGET MADURO — DIOSDADO CABELLO IS THE ONE HOLDING VENEZUELA HOSTAGE
American private sector oil companies have transformed the U.S. into the world’s premier oil producer. If the Trump administration can provide sufficient strategic clarity and policy consistency (currently missing) with respect to the desired end state for Venezuela, American oil companies will be able to mobilize the capital and technology required to turbocharge the growth of Venezuela’s oil industry.
Over the next decade, Venezuela’s oil production can catapult from the current level of 0.9 million bpd to 3.6 million bpd (about the level last seen in 1973). By 2035, the government in Caracas would be earning about $5.2 billion per year from oil royalties, assuming a 10% royalty on oil produced and an oil price of about $40 per barrel. Venezuela would be on the glide path of economic growth and development. Further assuming about 60% of oil production is allocated for exports to the U.S., Washington’s goal of energy security would be within reach.
Samir Tata is the founder and president of International Political Risk Analytics, an advisory firm based in Reston, Virginia, and author of the book Reflections on Grand Strategy: The Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century.