The money says Ossoff wins Georgia. The grassroots say watch out

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Georgia Republicans made their choice last month. Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) won the GOP nomination to take on Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), and almost immediately, the all-too-familiar narrative took hold: Ossoff has the money, Republicans are behind, and Georgia is simply too expensive to compete. That story is easy. It is also incomplete.

Fundraising totals make headlines, but they do not predict elections. The better question is not how much money a campaign raises, but what kind of campaign that money is building. Republicans do not need another reminder that Georgia Senate races have been difficult. The party has lost races many believed were winnable. But the lesson is not that Georgia cannot be won. The lesson is that statewide campaigns require every piece of the puzzle: organization, resources, and authentic grassroots support. Missing any one of those is costly.

Collins’s primary victory deserves attention not simply because he won, but because of how he won. He entered the race without a long-standing political machine, was outspent on television by nearly 15-to-1, and faced an opponent backed by Georgia’s political establishment, institutional support, and large-dollar donors. He won anyway.

Collins built something more valuable than a traditional fundraising operation. His campaign generated more than 88,000 small-dollar donations averaging just $11.91 each. Contributors came from all 50 states, Guam, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and every one of Georgia’s 159 counties. That matters.

Having spent years building digital fundraising programs for Republican campaigns, I have seen the difference between raising money and building a grassroots movement. One creates impressive quarterly reports. The other creates durable political strength.

Small-dollar donors are different. Many are giving for the first time. They are not responding to pressure from party committees or Washington consultants. They encounter a candidate, believe in the message, and voluntarily invest because they think the race matters.

President Donald Trump demonstrated the power of that model. His success with low-dollar fundraising reshaped Republican politics by creating an unprecedented network of grassroots donors whose enthusiasm became one of the clearest indicators of political momentum.

That is why Collins’s fundraising operation deserves attention heading into November.

Ossoff will be exceptionally well-funded. National Democrats and outside groups understand the importance of this seat and will spend accordingly. No one should underestimate that advantage.

But money alone does not guarantee victory.

There is an important difference between a campaign powered by grassroots participation and one fueled primarily by national party urgency and major donors. Collins’s average contribution of $11.91 reflects broad engagement from supporters willing to invest in his campaign at the grassroots level. It suggests Republicans are not giving up on Georgia — they were waiting for a candidate they believed could win.

Collins now enters the general election with several assets Republicans have sought in recent Georgia races: a tested campaign organization, an engaged small-dollar donor base, Trump’s endorsement, and a campaign that has already proven it can outwork and outorganize a better-funded opponent.

Over the coming months, much of the coverage will focus on the fundraising gap because it is the easiest statistic to measure. But elections are not decided by quarterly finance reports. They are decided by who builds the strongest organization, motivates the most committed supporters, and delivers the most effective message by election day.

Throughout the primary, Collins demonstrated he could do exactly that despite being dramatically outspent.

Georgia should not be viewed solely through the lens of past Republican disappointments. It remains one of the nation’s most competitive Senate battlegrounds, and Collins has built the kind of grassroots infrastructure Republicans have been searching for.

JON OSSOFF CHALLENGES MIKE COLLINS TO THREE DEBATES AS HE RIDES HIGH FROM POLLING AND FUNDRAISING

The broader lesson extends beyond Georgia. Republican campaigns should invest in building organizations from the grassroots up — not simply from the donor class down. Organization, resources, and grassroots enthusiasm together create campaigns capable of turning political frustration into electoral success.

Georgia is not a race to ignore until November. It is one worth watching now.

Dave Haas is CEO of Frontline Strategies.

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