Amid the latest skirmish between the United States and Iran, President Donald Trump has threatened to seize Kharg Island. Located in the northern Persian Gulf, Kharg Island provides Iran’s key energy storage and embarkation station, enabling approximately 90% of its oil exports. American seizure of the Island would cripple the Iranian regime’s ability to generate revenue. It would thus grant massive leverage to the U.S. with which to demand Iranian concessions on its nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.
There are, however, two major obstacles to any military operation focused on Kharg Island.
First, destroying Iranian oil infrastructure on the island would lead to Iran’s unrestrained escalation against U.S. and allied targets across the Middle East. That would be bad enough. But Kharg’s devastation would also mean Iran’s likely descent into state collapse. While this might sound like a positive prospect, the opposite is true.
Commentator Ben Shapiro suggested destroying Kharg Island on Wednesday. He rightly noted that doing so would prevent Iran from continuing to pay off its supporters and patronage networks. The problem is that it would also lead to the complete implosion of the Iranian economy and ensuing massive shortages of food and medicine. Amid this civilian suffering in a country of 90 million people, the regime hardliners would retain military power and hoard resources. Many would remain supported to the regime for reasons of necessity and ideological loyalty. What then?
Well, regime remnants would escalate their external and internal hostility beyond any semblance of restraint. Civilians would be caught between coercion, disease, and starvation. American moral authority would suffer greatly.
This state failure would almost certainly lead to a prolonged civil war. One in which no outcome was assured beyond years of massive regional chaos. Think vast refugee flows, various hyper-fanatical terrorist groups exporting violence, and weapons of mass destruction breakout attempts. Anyone who believes this crisis wouldn’t require heavy American military and economic involvement is deluding themselves. Top line: for Kharg Island to be useful to the U.S., it must be seized intact. And that leads to the second challenge.
Namely, that seizing Kharg Island would require the bloodiest Marine Corps amphibious assault since the Korean War. Oh, and also require ground combat on the Iranian mainland.
On paper, Kharg Island appears to be a relatively easy target. It’s just 5 miles long and 2.5 miles at its widest point. But the Marines know well that islands of small sizes don’t equate to military ease. For just the Kharg Island assault, the U.S. would probably have to deploy a Marine infantry battalion, a Marine littoral regiment, Navy SEAL teams, and an Army Ranger battalion. Alongside them would be extensive naval gunnery support and sustained air support from helicopter gunships, A-10s, AC-130J gunships, drones, bombers, and fast jets.
Some commentators, such as Larry Kudlow, have argued in favor of seizing Kharg Island in recent days. Others, such as Mark Levin, have hinted at as much by lamenting Trump’s failure to deploy ground troops in the war. But these arguments underestimate the difficulty of such an operation. Reflecting its strategic importance, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces garrisoned on Kharg Island are well-equipped, ideological loyalists. They benefit from numerous underground bunkers, tunnel networks, and arms depots. The U.S. would expect to take dozens killed in action and many more wounded in only the opening assault. Continued operations would send U.S. casualties significantly higher. But that’s not all.
Because absent further ground action on the Iranian mainland, U.S. forces on Kharg Island would be extraordinarily vulnerable. Even under a comprehensive air defense umbrella, they would be throttled by drone and missile attacks from Iran’s coastline just 20 miles east. U.S. forces inside Iran would be needed to push back those Iranian threats. This is almost certainly one reason why elements of the 82nd Airborne Division and Ranger Regiment are now forward deployed to the Middle East. The U.S. could not effectively clear the cave or mountain hidden Iranian missile and drone positions without some ground forces. Of course, Iran would likely rush its own reinforcements into the area were Americans to come ashore, precipitating a further ground force escalation.
Moreover, what of Kharg Island then? Iran would not engage in a deal via which the U.S. supervised Iranian oil exports from the island in return for Iranian concessions on its nuclear program etc. To do so would be to surrender the regime’s raison d’être: its perceived revolutionary service of God against God’s enemies. And having endured such pain to seize it, surely the U.S. would be reluctant to relinquish control of Kharg Island even for a grand diplomatic deal. After all, what if Iran then abandoned that agreement a few months or years later?
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This isn’t to suggest that the U.S. simply appease Iran or accept its continued breaches of the ceasefire agreement. On the contrary, Trump is right to impose heavy costs on Iran for its continued attacks on international shipping. Iranian leaders must know that while America seeks a diplomatic resolution to this war, it won’t do so at any cost. Where Iran pushes, the U.S. must push back harder.
Still, the notion that seizing or destroying Kharg Island is a good option is to chase a mirage that hides only death. Save the Marines for the war that must be won. That in defense of Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines.