The latest, continuing skirmish between the United States and Iran will be the new norm. Neither country wants a return to war, given that war is highly unlikely to lead to a decisive result in either direction. But Iran’s regional ambitions and anti-Americanism will drive it to keep testing American patience. In turn, President Donald Trump will likely maintain a whack-a-mole strategy of countering Iranian aggression.
Trump was certainly scathing in his appraisal of the Iranian regime on Wednesday. Describing Iranian leaders as “cuckoo,” he warned that future Iranian attacks on international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would be met with disproportionate U.S. military responses. Trump also referenced Iranian efforts to assassinate him. As he put it, “I may be gone, too, because I’m their No. 1 target … I’m their No. 1 because they’re scum.”
The basic strategic truth remains the same as that which preceded the war. Namely, that Iran has a blood feud with America and Trump personally. This Islamic revolutionary regime also remains committed to dominating the Middle East.
As the key ally to Iran’s nemesis adversaries, Israel and Saudi Arabia, the Islamic Republic has long regarded the U.S. as the key obstacle to its plans. Yet, having now pummeled its nuclear program, military, and top officials ranging from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Qassem Soleimani, Trump has earned Tehran’s very personal malice. This hatred is particularly important in the context of Iran’s Shia-Khomeinist fetish for martyrdom and theologically based historic aggrievement. This hatred motivates Iran to act in otherwise illogical ways. The regime will seek every possible opening to advance its agenda while harming Trump and U.S. interests.
We’re seeing that exploitation effort in the Hormuz Strait.
Iran recognizes the reason Trump cut it such a generous deal to end the war is that he was desperate to end the economic disruption caused by Iran’s closure of the strait. Iran has understandably concluded that the strait thus offers it a priceless pressure point via which to undermine American credibility in the Middle East and extract further American or allied concessions. If belatedly, this week’s U.S. air strikes illustrate that Trump has realized he cannot tolerate this Iranian confidence in blackmail. The heavier nature of these strikes represents an effort to seize back the initiative and let Iran know that it will not be able to out-escalate the U.S.
We’ll now see whether Iran accepts the new cost-benefit calculation Trump has introduced or forces Trump to take further action against it. Trump must be resolute here. Earlier, more cautious responses to Iranian affronts and U.S. statements praising Iranian leaders have only emboldened the regime. He has his work cut out for him because the Guard-aligned hardliners plainly believe Trump has no appetite for continued confrontation.
Yet, regardless of whether Iran now ends its attacks on international shipping, we should not expect calm dialogue to follow. Iran will continue to plot terrorist attacks in the region and internationally (to include the U.S.). Trump will very much remain on Iran’s hit list. The regime will absolutely use any windfall from oil sanctions waivers and sanctions relief to reconstitute its proxies — Hezbollah and Hamas, primarily — in Lebanon and across Iraq. Its threat will reconstitute with time.
FOREIGN MILITARIES CELEBRATE AMERICA, UNDERLINING IMPORTANCE OF ALLIANCES
Trump needs a healthier dose of prudence here. The military action to degrade Iran’s nuclear program was necessary. As is continued whack-a-mole action targeting Iran’s terrorism industry. And as with this week’s strikes, the U.S. must continue to enforce Iran’s understanding that its harassment of the Hormuz Strait will not be tolerated. But Trump’s attempt to force the Iranian regime out of power was foolish. It relied on absurdly ambitious presumptions and ignored the necessity of ground force operations for which there is very little appetite. The war also greatly undermined American deterrence toward its primary threat, China, by gutting U.S. weapons stockpiles.
Still, Iran will remain a dedicated adversary. Dealing with this challenge via diplomacy remains preferable to war. But where Iran pushes against the U.S., the U.S. must push back. And because Iran will keep pushing, occasional skirmishes are set to be the new norm.