China in late June added 10 U.S. companies to its export control list and barred government procurement from nearly 50 American firms, its latest response in the growing technological rivalry between Washington and Beijing.
The move came after the Pentagon blacklisted dozens of Chinese companies with alleged ties to China’s military.
Neither side should be surprised. Export controls have increasingly become the default response whenever tensions flare between the world’s two largest economies.
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Some of those restrictions are entirely justified. Keeping advanced technologies out of the hands of China’s military and other hostile actors is a legitimate national security objective.
But that’s only half the equation.
The more important question isn’t simply how America can keep its technology away from China. It’s how America can make sure the rest of the world keeps choosing American technology over China’s.
That’s the question Washington spends far too little time asking.
Too often, America’s export control policies have become an end in themselves rather than part of a broader strategy for winning the global technology race. In some cases, they have even backfired by encouraging China to develop competing technologies while making American products less attractive abroad.
For the same reason you wouldn’t mail a dangerous item to an unknown individual, the United States won’t export sensitive or restricted technologies to people in hostile nations who could use them against us. Thus, the need for export controls.
While some of our export controls have a legitimate national security objective, others have yielded blows to America’s economic influence and global technological leadership.
Every new restriction affects more than China. It also affects businesses, researchers, and governments around the world deciding which country’s technology they will build upon for years to come. If American products become harder to access, many won’t stop innovating — they’ll simply adopt alternatives. If so, the U.S. risks losing the war for AI supremacy.
The question American policymakers should be asking isn’t, “How do we stop others from accessing our technology?” Instead, they should ask, “How do we persuade more people throughout the world to embrace and then purchase American technology instead of someone else’s?”
If we don’t pursue honest answers to this question, we’ll find ourselves in a never-ending series of actions and reactions that only serve to undermine the U.S. and empower China.
Experts have warned for years that export controls, while sometimes necessary, can also accelerate the development of competing technologies overseas. Instead of slowing China’s technological progress, they often motivate Chinese firms to work harder in coming up with innovations that rival the best American technologies. Once those alternatives exist, American companies lose sales and the U.S. risks losing long-term technological influence.
NVIDIA founder Jensen Huang warned last year that China is at risk of winning the AI race because unnecessary U.S. regulations force American chipmakers to lose market share in China. That concern extends beyond semiconductors to AI infrastructure more broadly.
For example, if enacted into law, the Remote Access Security Act would prohibit U.S. cloud providers from giving customers in adversary nations like China remote access to advanced American chips.
If RASA passes, customers in other nations who currently patronize the U.S. may instead begin patronizing China. Again, the U.S. economy would lose money, and America would lose technological and political influence in what is likely the most important contest of the 21st century.
So how do we slow China’s progress and make our products the most desirable in the world?
Barring legitimate national security concerns, the U.S. should allow American tech and AI companies to compete in the global market.
Last year, President Donald Trump challenged the AI industry to develop and deploy better products to compete worldwide. That’s a healthy start.
No company or nation will win the AI war by itself. That is why, as they create the most innovative products the world has ever seen, American companies must also be encouraged to partner with allied nations to build, promote, and purchase its technologies.
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Export controls will always have a place. But they cannot become America’s entire AI strategy.
The U.S. can win. We have the talent to make our chips and our artificial intelligence the globe’s preferred option. Let’s stop talking, and let’s start doing.
Oren Etzioni, Ph.D., is professor emeritus of computer science at the University of Washington. He is the founding CEO of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit scientific research institute founded by late Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist Paul Allen.