As the United States of America at 250 looks forward to the next 250 years and beyond, it is vital that we address the unanswered existential question that lies at the heart of our national identity: Who will be the new Americans?
Historically, the policy focus has been on addressing the question of who we do not want. Certainly, President Donald Trump is determined to block unwanted immigrants at the border so they cannot enter the country, and deport unwanted immigrants (both illegal, as well as, legal) who are already within the U.S.
It is time, however, as a matter of compelling economic necessity, to shift from a preoccupation on the negative to focus on the value-added positive: Who do we need as new Americans?
USCIS BOOSTS CITIZENSHIP APPLICATION FEE TO $1,300
The overarching driver of sustainable economic growth is having a population that has a birth rate at least equal to the natural replacement rate of 2.1 persons. If the birth rate is below the natural replacement rate, then the difference (the fertility gap) must be made up via immigration. This is the bedrock demographic reality that any modern immigration policy must address. Failure to do so will mean a shrinking, older population.
In 2025, the U.S. birth rate was about 1.6 persons (born to women aged 15-40), which was below the 2.1-person natural replacement rate required for a sustainable population base for economic growth. With a population of about 349 million, theoretically, immigration should have been about 1.1 million. Immigration in 2025 amounted to about 1.0 million people, which was a strong indicator of the currently politically acceptable level of net immigration.
The political reality is that the social absorptive capacity is below the economic absorptive capacity of the country with respect to immigration. Clearly, the bias against higher levels of immigration suggests an implied willingness to accept a lower level of economic growth as the price of a lower level of immigration.
A “smart” immigration policy that focuses on attracting the people the U.S. needs would help overcome (or at least significantly mitigate) the potential adverse impact on economic growth of an absolute cap on the level of immigration.
A smart immigration policy guided by economic imperatives but constrained by the politically acceptable level of immigration would have three prongs: (1) highly skilled individuals, (2) high-net-worth individuals, and (3) low-skilled individuals. Associated with the individuals would be their respective family units (spouse and dependent children). Policy makers will have to map out the expected needs for the foreseeable future. The key is to ensure that a smart U.S. immigration policy serves as a magnet for needed immigrants.
Innovation driven by research and development is the key to improving long-term productivity (capacity to use fewer resources to produce better and greater amount of goods), which is the surest pathway to economic growth and development.
At the core of the innovation ecosystem is graduate education in STEM disciplines (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics). Currently, foreign students constitute a significant majority of students enrolled in such U.S. graduate education programs. Retaining such foreign students post-graduation is the most efficient way of ensuring that the U.S. has a robust pipeline of highly skilled, value-added individuals.
Other obvious categories of foreign-educated and trained highly skilled individuals that the country needs include those in the medical professions (doctors, nurses, medical technicians), energy industry (oil and gas engineers and technicians), and defense industry (naval shipbuilding and repair engineers and mechanics). There is a competitive international market for such individuals.
Entrepreneurship is a critical engine of economic growth driven by small and medium-sized businesses. For an important segment of foreign high-net-worth individuals, wealth has been earned by virtue of their entrepreneurial drive. If such high-net-worth individuals can be attracted to the U.S., it is very likely that they will continue to create wealth in their new home, given their successful entrepreneurial track record.
At the other end of the spectrum, are low-skilled individuals who are needed to plug gaps and fill needed jobs considered unattractive by many low-skilled, native-born Americans. This category covers a wide range of menial jobs such as agricultural laborers, restaurant dish washers, housemaids and cleaning staff, and caregivers (for children and seniors).
CITIZENSHIP IS NOT A SOUVENIR: WHY HO IS THE WRONG JUSTICE FOR THIS MOMENT
What distinguishes most low-skilled, foreign-born individuals from many of their native-born American counterparts is that they aspire to “the American dream” and seek the opportunity for a better life. Yet, this category of low-skilled, foreign-born workers is the most challenging to address because it also is significantly peopled by unauthorized (and otherwise unwanted) immigrants. American pragmatism can and must rise to the challenge.
Of course, there is likely to be a gap between what America needs and what America wants with respect to the profile and quantum of immigrants. So, a separate “other” prong will have to be crafted to at least allow for a small but meaningful amount of such immigrants. For example, such a category could facilitate the future entry of a limited number of Ukrainian or Taiwanese political refugees on humanitarian grounds, symbolizing America’s continued multi-faceted role as a safe harbor.
Samir Tata is the founder and president of International Political Risk Analytics, an advisory firm based in Reston, Virginia, and author of the book, Reflections on Grand Strategy: The Great Powers in the Twenty-first Century.