Under pressure from months of Ukrainian drone and missile strikes, Russia’s occupation of the Ukrainian territory of Crimea is in big trouble. Massive traffic jams have formed near the Kerch Bridge, the main route out of the peninsula. Fuel sales have also been restricted, and power cuts are being seen across the Crimean Peninsula. At the same time, President Donald Trump appears to be warming to a more pro-Ukraine line, praising Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Put simply, Russia has a growing problem.
Reports suggest that Trump has agreed, at least in principle, to tighten sanctions on the Russian energy sector. Zelensky also said that the American president had positively received Ukraine’s request for additional air defenses. All of this has Moscow worried. Statements coming out of the Kremlin now move between blackmail and softer language in an effort to influence Washington.
Last month, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged Secretary of State Marco Rubio to evacuate American diplomats from Kyiv, warning of strikes on what Moscow called command and decision-making centers. When those threats produced defiance from Washington and European capitals, and steady resolve in Kyiv, the Kremlin began presenting itself as the side ready for peace. On Wednesday, Lavrov accused the United States of stepping back from the role of an “objective mediator.” Moscow’s key objective is to prevent Washington from providing Ukraine with more weapons. The Kremlin is also dangling the wounded-bear argument: the suggestion that a cornered Russia becomes more dangerous and that restraint serves everyone’s interest. The Kremlin has paired that message with reminders of its nuclear doctrine and warnings about escalation.
Other problems abound for Russia, however.
Beyond its successful attacks against the Crimean Peninsula, Ukraine has been pushing Russia on the front line. Ukrainian forces also recently hit a Moscow oil refinery and a space communications site near Moscow. They have also struck key targets in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hometown of Saint Petersburg. Zelensky has cited intelligence that Russia is moving air defenses from its regions toward Moscow and the Kerch Bridge, thinning the shield elsewhere. The fuel crisis has also reached Russian regions beyond Crimea, pushing Moscow toward the strange step of importing gasoline by sea.
Until now, Moscow has waged its war in a way that largely shielded Russians from its consequences. At least Russians without family members serving on the front lines. Russians have not been forced into basements, and daily life has continued mostly uninterrupted. But Ukraine’s long-range capabilities have altered the equation. Images of buildings on fire in Moscow may not dramatically shift the military balance, but they do signal to the Russian public that the Kremlin is losing control. Paired with battlefield pressure, those consequences are the only force that could move Moscow toward genuine concessions in any future peace talks.
For the Kremlin, negotiations were acceptable only as long as Moscow believed Trump might force Ukraine to accept concessions Russia had failed to achieve on the battlefield. Otherwise, the costs of continuing the war were manageable, and Moscow believed time was on its side. Today, Russian officials are worried about what may come next. The Kremlin fears an American president who acts with far more reflexive resolve than his predecessor. They worry he may now choose to stand firmly with Kyiv.
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Russian threats are thus aimed at limiting American action before Ukraine gains more leverage. But Trump should instead make this war more costly for Moscow by giving Ukraine the means to impose heavier costs on its enemy. The route to peace and Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize now runs through Russian discomfort.
More weapons for Ukraine offer the strongest chance of forcing Moscow to reassess. Trump should act with resolve, because strength is the only language the Kremlin understands.