President Donald Trump is presenting the Iran negotiations as proof that U.S. and Israeli military pressure worked. In contrast, Iran is leveraging its survival of that military campaign, claiming it entered negotiations on its own terms. Iran’s contention is the more accurate one.
The truth? The Trump administration used force against Iran, raised expectations of a decisive result, and then moved into negotiations before Tehran had made any real concessions.
The United States, however, has made major concessions already. It granted a 60-day sanctions waiver, allowing Iran to conduct oil sales. In exchange, Iran has agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. These oil sales will earn Iran $6 billion to $9 billion over a 60-day period.
For Trump, the stakes run higher. He started this war and framed it in absolute terms. He told Iranians their hour of freedom had arrived and promised a nuclear agreement that would impose clear, verifiable limits on Iran’s nuclear program. That means the standard for success is the one he set.
But if this war does indeed end without serious Iranian concessions, the future of American power will once again be questioned. Middle Eastern allies will conclude that America is simply unwilling to bear the costs of a serious military campaign. Other international allies will similarly fear Washington’s resolve will be lacking the next time a crisis comes to their own shores.
The central problem is that, thus far at least, Iran has not demonstrated willingness to make any real concessions. This has fostered a perception that the White House needs this deal more than Tehran does. But judged in objective economic and military terms, that is far from the truth. The Iranian government entered these talks with its economy completely battered, its military badly damaged, and its proxies weakened. But Iran now senses salvation. The triumphant messaging coming out of Tehran is proof of that.
The American people, as wary as they are of faraway wars, will ultimately support most wars provided the war in question is won. The raid to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro proved as much. But Iran offers Trump no such saleable clarity, and the midterm elections are approaching.
And if Washington allows Tehran to hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage at will, the damage will reach far beyond this moment. America’s Middle Eastern allies will move towards arrangements with Tehran aimed at protecting their own interests. Consider how China, an interlocutor for Iran, will become an increasingly appealing partner for these traditional U.S. allies.
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Tying Israeli actions in Lebanon with the current negotiations also bears dividends for Tehran. If Hezbollah and the Strait of Hormuz are put into the same file, Tehran will believe its regional pressure strategy worked and always refrain from giving up that leverage.
A president who launches a war is judged by its outcome, both by enemies and allies alike. If this campaign ends without a clear resolution that is favorable to America and its allies, everyone will believe that American power is both flimsy and exhaustible.