At times, a boxing match is not won when punches are being traded, but in the pauses between them.
For the casual observer, nothing appears to be happening. The crowd grows restless, awaiting results, while the fighters circle one another, catch their breath, study reactions, assess damage, and reset their footing. Yet seasoned fighters understand that some of the most important moments in a bout occur between exchanges. Momentum shifts. Strategies evolve. Weaknesses appear. Opportunities emerge. What appears to be inactivity to the bystander, in reality, may be preparation for the next round.
The memorandum of understanding between the Trump administration and the Islamic Republic of Iran and its military and security apparatus, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, may represent such a pause — a strategic pause. At this point, the pause appears to be the only common ground the two sides share, with much left unresolved.
THE EMPEROR’S NUCLEAR CLOTHES: TRUMP IRAN DEAL AND THE NAKED KING
For the Revolutionary Guard, the incentives for accepting a pause are straightforward. They need economic oxygen to replenish, regroup, suppress internal unrest and fractures, and survive to fight another day. Mere survival constitutes victory for the the Revolutionary Guard.
Unlike nation-states that may define victory through territorial or economic gain, the Revolutionary Guard’s primary objective is survival. If the regime survives, it can rebuild. If it can rebuild, it can rearm. If it can rearm, it can re-aim and resume pursuing its objectives under more favorable conditions at a later date.
The Guard may use the pause to restore its defensive systems. However, there is a significant difference between rebuilding yesterday’s defenses — systems that the United States has repeatedly penetrated and degraded — and developing a new generation of capabilities under the watchful eyes of the U.S. intelligence apparatus.
Washington’s incentives for a strategic pause are as complex and multilayered as Tehran’s incentives are straightforward. For President Donald Trump, the calculus appears to involve military, political, economic, legal, diplomatic, intelligence, and moral considerations.
Viewing the landscape through a lens of intelligence not available to observers, the administration appears confident that the Guard’s nuclear and offensive capabilities have been significantly degraded and the threat they pose at least temporarily contained.
If so, the pause creates an opportunity not merely to avoid escalation, but to consolidate gains already achieved while preserving the flexibility to resume pressure at a time and in a manner of America’s choosing.
This allows the administration to reassess its options and determine whether its objectives can be achieved through continued leverage, economic pressure, clandestine and intelligence operations, and diplomacy.
Although Trump has demonstrated a willingness to use force as an instrument of statecraft, he has also repeatedly expressed an aversion to unnecessary destruction, needless loss of life, and prolonged military campaigns when alternative means remain available. In The Art of the Deal, Trump wrote, “Sometimes by losing a battle you find a new way to win the war.” While the strategic pause is not a loss, it does suggest a willingness to step back, reassess, and explore alternative paths toward a larger objective — expanding the Abraham Accords and advancing a more permanent peace in the Middle East.
The pause also allows the administration to assess legal, political, economic, and diplomatic realities. The War Powers Resolution, rising energy prices, uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, and approaching midterm elections all favor strategic patience over immediate escalation.
Just because kinetic operations have paused does not mean the conflict itself has stopped. Strategic pauses create opportunities for intelligence collection, damage assessments, target refinement, coalition building, diplomatic positioning, and clandestine operations. While the Revolutionary Guard focuses on rebuilding damaged infrastructure and restoring military capabilities, American intelligence and military assets gain opportunities to observe and better understand the regime’s vulnerabilities.
A fighter who hurts his opponent does not always rush in recklessly. Sometimes he studies the damage, watches for openings, and prepares for the next exchange. Sometimes, having already demonstrated his ability to finish the fight, he chooses restraint out of discipline — or even mercy. The strategic pause may provide Trump with a similar opportunity.
Despite the intense scrutiny devoted to the MOU, the broader pattern is nothing new. Since June of 2025, Trump has demonstrated a willingness to strike the Guard, pause, apply pressure through other means, and resume kinetic operations when he believes necessary.
Each successive round has involved a broader target package, escalating force, and a progressively more committed campaign. In 2019, the Trump administration designated the Revolutionary Guard as a foreign terrorist organization, a designation later adopted by a number of other nations. Subsequently, in 2020, Trump ordered the strike that killed the Guard’s Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani.
Viewed through that lens, the current pause may be less significant than many critics contend. It may even be a strategic gambit, allowing gains to consolidate and the cumulative effects of pressure through other means to take hold. While headlines focus on the noise surrounding the MOU, strategists and advisers to the administration should remain focused on the objectives.
The fighting has paused, but the underlying ideologies remain. The likelihood of the Revolutionary Guard abandoning its Islamic fundamentalist worldview is about as likely as the United States replacing the Constitution with Sharia law (Islamic Law).
Hence, the pause is just that — a pause, not an end.
The absence of use of force does not equate to peace. Neither side has abandoned its fundamental objectives. Neither side has demonstrated a conversion of ideology. Neither side suddenly trusts the other. The dispute remains.
The question is whether this pause represents the beginning of the end or merely the end of the beginning.
Whether the current pause succeeds remains to be seen. What is clear is that the questions surrounding the Guard’s nuclear ambitions, its future role, and the architecture for a permanent peace in the region remain unresolved.
For now, the fighters have returned to their corners, preparing for the next round.
THE IRAN DEAL SIGNING CEREMONY NO ONE ATTENDED
The judges have yet to render a decision.
The bell has not yet rung for the next round.
Sonny Sarkissian is a California-based writer with a B.A. in Political Science. He is a former Marine, a former police lieutenant, and a former police detective. He has a professional and academic background in homeland security, anti-terrorism, diplomatic security, and intelligence analysis. He may be reached at sonnysarkissian.com