With his military unable to effectively penetrate Ukrainian defensive lines and Ukraine increasingly able to strike deep inside Russia, President Vladimir Putin will soon escalate his threats to the West. Will President Donald Trump deter him? Or will the leader of the free world blink?
There’s no question that Kremlin escalation is coming. Indeed, it’s already here.
Recent days have seen Russia demand that American and European diplomats evacuate Kyiv or risk being killed in Russian missile attacks. We’ve also seen threats to NATO member Latvia over Moscow’s invented claim that the country is hosting Ukrainian drone forces. In addition, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov rolled out new nuclear threats on Wednesday. He reminded us that Moscow reserves the right to use nuclear weapons against any “encroachment” of its “territorial integrity.” Russian ultranationalist rhetoric has also returned to its favored nuclear theme.
The rationale behind this growing escalation is clear: Putin is slowly losing the war in Ukraine and desperately wants the West to end its support for the victim of this war.
On the battlefield, Russian forces in southeastern and eastern Ukraine are now locked out of the Starlink satellite communications network and increasingly denied access to the Telegram messaging app. Their already feeble command and control structures are thus in disarray. Ukrainian drones have also turned both front lines and rear logistics lines into killing fields, deterring and depleting Russian offensive action. Making matters worse, Russia has lost nearly 500,000 soldiers since the Feb. 2022 start of the war, including many of its best personnel.
Putin’s next problem?
Ukraine is having extraordinary success in expanding the battlefield to Russia. Ukrainian drones are now operating at scale and at very long range, penetrating Russian air defense networks to target energy facilities, weapons factories, and other key targets. So concerned was Putin that Ukraine would target a recent Second World War parade, he begged Trump to pressure Ukraine into a temporary ceasefire. Putin then reciprocated Ukraine’s gift by launching massive strikes on its cities. But Putin’s drone problem persists. We’ve seen a superb example of this dynamic just this week, with Ukrainian drones striking warships and oil facilities in Putin’s home city of St. Petersburg. Coinciding with the start of Russia’s key international summit, the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, these attacks are profoundly embarrassing for Putin. Putin knows that Ukraine is increasingly gutting his key domestic narrative of stability and security.
Yet, while he is ultimately rational, so also is Putin determined. He does not want to end the war in Ukraine in a manner that he cannot sell as a victory. In turn, believing that the transatlantic alliance is increasingly fragile and that European leaders are ultimately weak, he will now attempt to escalate his way out of this malaise. But what might we expect Putin to actually do?
Well, note that the Russian intelligence services have been steadily escalating their use of criminals recruited via encrypted messaging apps in order to conduct sabotage, arson, and assassination plots across Europe. These efforts are likely to grow more varied and aggressive. Russian intelligence officers and established agents are likely to increase their own hostile actions. Russia will also seek to bolster the argument of Western populist left-wing and right-wing parties that supporting Ukraine poses far more risks than it provides benefits. Expect new nuclear exercises, nuclear posture changes, and invented claims that the Baltic States are attempting to suck NATO into a war with Russia, for example. We might also see new, accidental Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace. Consider the recent Russian drone that crashed into a Romanian apartment building, injuring two people. While there is no public evidence that this incident was deliberate, any deniable deliberate incursions would fit well with Russia’s covert action strategy.
The key, then, is how the West responds to this activity. Deterrence rests on imposing costs for any new aggression.
The first obligation is for European NATO leaders to stand resolute in quickly rebutting any Russian notion that its escalation will pay dividends. That means clear unity of purpose and, where necessary, new sanctions and public military deployments. But so also must Trump be ready to act. Albeit far from perfect, NATO provides a very significant economic and security value to the United States. And those NATO allies Russia likes to threaten most are those that most love America and take most seriously NATO burden sharing. While Trump has badly undermined American moral and strategic standing by threatening the Danish territory of Greenland (Denmark lost the U.S. population equivalent of 2,152 soldiers fighting in Afghanistan and Iraq), suggestions he has abandoned NATO are greatly exaggerated.
The Trump administration’s recent troop posture changes in Europe do not jeopardize NATO security. Reports that the U.S. may cancel a previously planned Tomahawk missile deployment to Germany are also likely to do with China deterrence concerns rather than fear of antagonizing Russia. Moreover, Trump has repeatedly proven himself far more credible than either Joe Biden or Barack Obama, both in strengthening U.S. nuclear forces and bolstering nuclear deterrence of Russia. This nuclear domain is where Trump’s penchant for machismo standoffs is most valuable.
When, as in July 2025, Russian security council deputy chairman and former president Dmitry Medvedev threatened Trump with Russian nuclear forces, Trump responded plainly. As he put it, “Based on the highly provocative statements of [Medvedev], I have ordered two Nuclear Submarines to be positioned in the appropriate regions just in case these foolish and inflammatory statements are more than just that….” This clear rhetoric carries cultural and strategic weight in Russia. After all, Putin and his generals know Russia would cease to exist in a nuclear war with the U.S. While the U.S. would suffer gravely from such a war, it would likely survive as a sovereign nation.
CHINA, OR WHY US-ISRAEL TECH AGREEMENT MUST EXCLUDE TOP U.S. SECRETS
The key, then, is for the U.S. and NATO to remain resolute. Russia is losing a war of aggression. The West should continue to support Ukraine so that Putin is eventually forced to choose between another domestic coup or making serious concessions at the negotiating table.
But just as Putin is deterred by unambiguous strength, he perceives timidity as a Bull Shark smells blood in the water.