President Donald Trump has delivered the clearest signal yet: no Iran deal unless the remaining moderate Sunni Camp members finally join the Abraham Accords.
This linkage marks a sharp departure from past U.S. diplomacy, which rewarded regional partners’ inaction. These governments have long demanded American protection while refusing to normalize relations with the U.S.’s biggest regional ally. As hostages of the ayatollah’s regime, they seek reopened shipping lanes, release of the $12 billion in frozen Iranian funds from Qatar, and relief from Tehran’s missile threats — yet contribute nothing in return.
With their new toll system, enabled by Oman’s support, Iran now de facto controls the Strait of Hormuz. It fields more than 3,000 ballistic missiles and maintains an 11-ton enriched uranium stockpile, including hundreds of kilograms enriched to 60% purity. These capabilities survived weeks of direct U.S. and Israeli strikes, proving the regime’s resilience. As a result, the moderate Sunni Camp is cornered; it needs the deal far more than Washington does.
ISRAEL’S ‘ABRAHAMIC NATO’: INFORMAL ALLIANCE RESHAPING REGIONAL ORDER
A complementary geostrategic thrust further sharpens the pressure. As Puerto Rico Gov. Jenniffer Gonzalez-Colon recently suggested, perhaps without authorization, the United States could be at war with Cuba in the coming weeks.
Such a scenario could bring regime change to the island in as little as a week. Venezuela’s vast geography and entrenched drug-cartel networks tied to its former dictatorship made similar speed impossible there. This stands in stark contrast to the complexities that have long shielded Havana and Tehran. Yet, Caracas proves the model can work. Due to America’s actions, Interim President Delcy Rodriguez is now pursuing a “Spanish Transition” model: opening the economy to the West, cutting ties with Cuba, Iran, and Russia, selling oil to Israel, and launching measures to renovate the state.
The message to Tehran is clear: the U.S. can topple another Axis of Evil remnant in days, even in the middle of a military campaign against them. Iran will then have to decide to negotiate in good faith, after realizing America’s power, or face the consequences. This approach will restore credibility after nine cycles of unfulfilled Iran promises by Trump and could fracture Iran’s three competing power centers: the supreme leader’s hiding place, the presidency, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Lasting security, in my view, requires real regime change in Tehran, the full dismantlement of the nuclear, ballistic missile, and suicide-drone programs, and the permanent neutralization of the Guard’s military and political power. However, the approach Trump is now considering — widening the Abraham Accords so Iran understands that any wrong move will directly face a unified “Abrahamic NATO,” even after he leaves office — is innovative. Like “Donroe,” this will certainly reshape the global order.
Anything softer, merely reopening the Strait, releasing the Qatari funds, leaving the regime intact, and restarting Obama-style nuclear talks, would be disastrous. Iran would claim that “the Islamic resistance liberated sacred land from Western oppression” while strengthening its messianic narrative.
It would use the funds to fuel jihadism and proxies, as it did with the more than $100 billion released under Obama. It would continue branding the conflict as illegitimate, a narrative that is already gaining traction even among some right-wing parties in Europe.
TRUMP AND XI AGREE: IRAN CAN ‘NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON
Washington has the leverage and must use it. The Pentagon should immediately prepare contingency plans for a rapid Cuba operation. Public signaling alone would increase pressure on Tehran and the moderate Sunni Camp without firing a shot.
In tandem, Congress should pass binding legislation making expansion of the Abraham Accords a nonnegotiable precondition for any Iran agreement, ending decades of free-riding on American blood and treasure while giving Trump the decisive edge.
Jose Lev Alvarez is an American–Israeli scholar specializing in Middle Eastern security policy. A multilingual veteran of the IDF special forces and the U.S. Army, he holds three master’s degrees and is completing a Ph.D. in Intelligence and Global Security in the Washington, D.C., area.