In a February meeting with the Trump administration, United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby floated the idea of a merger between his company, United Airlines, and American Airlines. Most analysts and antitrust experts quickly rejected the proposal, arguing it would harm competition. But antitrust law is about more than simply preserving the largest number of competitors. It is about efficiency and consumer welfare. In a fiercely competitive global economy, U.S. antitrust policy should strengthen American companies that compete internationally.
A well-structured merger between United and American could deliver meaningful benefits through greater efficiency, stronger networks, and more reliable service.
Start with costs. The airline industry is extraordinarily capital-intensive, with high fixed costs tied to aircraft, labor, maintenance, and fuel. Combining United and American would create significant economies of scale. A unified airline could streamline overlapping routes, consolidate maintenance operations, and negotiate better terms with suppliers. Lower costs, in a competitive industry, tend to flow through to consumers in the form of lower fares or more stable pricing over time. This dynamic is especially evident on long haul and hub to hub routes, where foreign carriers exert constant pricing pressure.
A combined company would also be better positioned to compete globally, particularly against state-subsidized airlines in the Middle East and Asia. United Airlines today has only a modest share of international travel. Expanding that footprint would not only strengthen a key American industry but also improve the U.S. balance of trade. In a world where aviation is a strategic sector, scale matters.
Network benefits would be equally important. A merged carrier could optimize hub usage, eliminate unnecessary duplication, and expand service to underserved markets. For travelers, this translates into more direct flights, fewer layovers, and better connectivity. Business travelers would benefit from tighter schedules and improved on-time performance, reducing costly delays. These gains in productivity, though often overlooked, are central to economic growth. Promoting efficiency is a core principle of U.S. antitrust policy, and a more efficient transportation system benefits the entire economy.
Reliability is another area where consumers stand to gain. Airlines routinely face disruptions from weather, staffing shortages, and equipment issues. A larger airline with a deeper fleet and more flexible crews is better able to absorb shocks. When flights are delayed or canceled, a combined United-American network would offer more rebooking options and faster recovery times. For both individuals and corporations, this resilience has real economic value. Missed meetings, delayed shipments, and disrupted schedules impose costs that rarely appear in ticket prices but weigh heavily on the broader economy.
Critics argue that consolidation reduces competition. But even after a merger, the U.S. airline market would remain competitive. Low-cost carriers such as Southwest and JetBlue would continue to put downward pressure on fares. In addition, regulators could impose targeted conditions, such as slot divestitures at congested airports, to preserve competition where it matters most. The result would be a balanced outcome: efficiency gains without monopoly pricing power.
Finally, a combined airline would likely be more financially stable. The industry has long been prone to boom-and-bust cycles, with bankruptcies disrupting service and harming consumers. A stronger balance sheet reduces the risk of sudden failures and supports sustained investment in newer aircraft, better technology, and improved customer experience. Over time, that stability benefits everyone who relies on air travel.
A merger between United Airlines and American Airlines would not represent a retreat from competition, but an advance in efficiency and resilience. By lowering costs, strengthening networks, improving reliability, and enhancing global competitiveness, such a deal could deliver tangible gains for consumers and the broader business community.
James Rogan is a former U.S. foreign service officer who later worked in law and finance for over 30 years. Now he writes a daily note on markets, economics, politics, and social issues.