Negotiations in Pakistan between the United States and Iran failed last weekend. This outcome was inevitable.
The Trump administration wanted Tehran to dismantle its nuclear program, surrender its missile capabilities, and open the Strait of Hormuz unconditionally. But that plainly constituted capitulation for Tehran. The credible path toward a nuclear weapon is the Iranian regime’s only long-term insurance policy against suffering the fate of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi. The tyrants in Tehran also understand that such a concession would be read at home as surrender, and a regime that rules through intimidation and the mythology of resistance cannot risk appearing defeated.
Instead, Iran appears to believe it has emerged from the war in a position of relative strength. The U.S. and Israeli air campaign, devastating as it was, remained limited to airstrikes. Just as Washington has avoided ground operations, the regime has survived the killing of its supreme leader, the destruction of key military sites, and sustained aerial bombardment. This survival means the theocrats see no reason to hand over at a negotiating table what they believe they successfully defended on the battlefield. The war has given Tehran a sense that it can outlast an American president who they believe fears deeper entanglement. The regime reads Trump’s fear as a key point of leverage.
Tehran is likely now calculating that if it drags out the diplomatic process long enough, Washington will soften its demands until a favorable framework emerges. One that allows Iran’s nuclear and defense programs to regenerate over time. But those are the very terms Washington rejected before the war, and this war has only raised the bar for what Trump could claim was acceptable. The one arrangement Tehran would readily sign, something resembling the 2015 agreement, is precisely the kind of deal this American president has built his political brand on tearing up.
But much remains unknown. Whether the Iranian regime stands at the brink of internal fracture, whether the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps can maintain cohesion, whether the streets of Tehran will once again fill with protesters, all of these questions remain unanswered.
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But this much is clear: These talks failed because the only way they could have succeeded is if one side declared real victory or accepted real defeat.
Tehran refuses defeat, and the facts on the ground have yet to deliver it. For Iran to feel compelled to accept American terms, it must first abandon the conviction that it is winning this confrontation. As long as that perception persists, compromise remains far away. And as the ceasefire window closes, Washington may find itself where it was before the ceasing of hostilities.