The United Kingdom announced last Thursday that it had employed antisubmarine warfare forces to disrupt Russia’s targeting of its undersea infrastructure.
The plot involved a spy submarine from Russia’s GUGI naval intelligence service attempting to tap or otherwise precisely chart undersea cables and pipelines. The intent of this operation was to allow Russia to sever these supply links on President Vladimir Putin’s future orders, badly damaging the U.K.’s energy and communications infrastructure. In an effort to deflect attention away from the GUGI submarine, Russia simultaneously deployed an Akula-class attack submarine toward the U.K.
It is obviously positive that Russia’s latest gambit didn’t pay off. Still, it is absurd that Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government is trying to present this as some kind of grand success. While that may be true at the tactical level, this incident underlines a broader strategic failure.
For one, the U.K. government press release on the incident explicitly notes that the submarine was tracked “in and around U.K. waters.” “In,” here, suggests that one of the Russian submarines entered the 12-mile nautical limit that delineates British territorial waters. And although there is no public proof, there are indications that Russian submarines have repeatedly penetrated British territorial waters in recent years. This includes a possible incursion during the 2021 Group of Seven summit in southwest England.
Yet, the fact that the Russians deployed an Akula-class attack submarine rather than a far quieter Yasen-class submarine suggests they wanted that submarine to be detected. The Russian military revels in what it calls these “maskirovka,” or military deception operations. This, then, was not a full-court press to test the Royal Navy to its absolute limit.
But this incident plainly did test the Royal Navy near its limits.
Leading the ASW hunt were HMS Somerset and HMS St. Albans, both Type-23 frigates. While these are some of the oldest ships in the Royal Navy, they have been updated with highly sophisticated sonar systems. But the Royal Navy’s surface fleet is extremely stretched. The same is true of the submarine force. The U.K. has just four ballistic missile submarines. And while its Astute-class attack submarines are second only to the U.S. Navy’s Virginia-class, only five of these submarines are in service. This is grossly insufficient to maintain adequate operational cover against Russian threats, let alone the full range of global contingencies.
Yes, the absence of the Astute-class HMS Artful from its home port during the recent operation suggests it was deployed to track the Russian activities. That said, any scaled Russian submarine activity would likely stretch the Royal Navy beyond breaking point. It should be emphasized that the U.K. had to rely upon support from the Norwegian military during this operation. This leaves the Royal Navy in a situation in which it has around five deep-water warships total that are available for crisis deployments at any one moment.
This is a real problem for the Starmer government. This neglect bears stark contrast to the far more agile French navy and now booming German defense spending. And while the previous Conservative government deserves heavy criticism for letting things get so bad, the buck now stops with Starmer. And this situation is undermining the U.S.-U.K. special relationship. While U.S. and British submarines and their crews are superior to their Russian counterparts, the Russian submarine force is both capable and dangerous (and of great instructive value to China). Put simply, the U.K. urgently needs more warships above and below the water.
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This concern is further emphasized by Starmer’s refusal to provide early and adequate support for U.S. basing requests and defensive support over the war in Iran. While Starmer eventually ordered the deployment of HMS Dragon, a Type-45 air defense destroyer, its departure was delayed by more than a week due to low readiness issues. HMS Dragon has now been sitting at port in Cyprus for a week as repairs are made to its water system.
Starmer’s government currently presides over a $38 billion deficit in its defense accounts. If this isn’t fixed (something that can easily be done by cutting the U.K.’s grotesquely bloated welfare budget), the next Russian test of U.K. security may find Starmer buried in a political crisis.