President Donald Trump warned on Sunday that unless Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz by 8 p.m. on Tuesday, he will order the bombing of Iran’s critical infrastructure. As the president put it, “Tuesday will be power plant day, and bridge day, all wrapped up in one, Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F***in strait you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in hell – JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah.”
Iran will not open the Strait.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps cadre now controlling Iran recognizes that Trump is desperate to see the reopening of this key energy chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. They will keep exerting pressure here in order to increase the U.S. domestic and international political pressure on Trump. That already significant pressure is quickly growing.
The Iranians fully understand that Trump’s first priority is to reduce the U.S. cost-of-living pressures that the war has created. Gas prices are up approximately 30% since the start of the war, with costs on industries also increasing. The approaching November midterm elections make these urgent political concerns. But the war’s economic pressure on U.S. allies and partners from the United Kingdom to Australia and India to the Philippines is even more significant. Notwithstanding Trump’s oscillating rhetoric on the importance of the strait, the chokepoint’s continued closure is causing major disruption to the international economy. It is aggrieving America’s international relationships and damaging Trump’s influence and credibility.
Trump knows this, and so does Iran.
Hence, why the regime is willing to keep pushing the Hormuz pressure button even if doing so causes significantly increased harm to its interests. Indeed, Trump’s derisive reference to “Allah” in his Sunday deadline message will only boost this Iranian sentiment. Derisively referencing Allah doesn’t matter in terms of offending the woke brigade, but it will reinforce the Iranian hard-liner sentiment from the top to bottom ranks that this is a holy, existential war. These adherents to the regime’s Khomeinist ideology already fetishize principles of martyrdom and suffering in service to their God’s purpose on Earth. They will choose to endure escalating U.S. attacks on Iranian critical infrastructure in the belief that they have no choice but to do so, and that the ensuing pain will be outweighed by the eventual gain. That gain being Trump’s adoption of a more conciliatory negotiating stance amid his increasing desperation to open the strait.
PARARESCUEMEN PROVE THEMSELVES AGAIN IN IRAN RESCUE
Trump should avoid falling into this trap of his own making.
Rather than bombing power plants and water treatment facilities, he should maintain patient but calibrated pressure on depleting Iran’s military power. If the regime senses that Trump’s desperation is giving way to his more realistic patience, it will be more willing to enjoin credible diplomacy.