Before and after the United States began its current action against Iran, commentators claimed that the operation would overstretch the U.S. military. They raised concerns about weakening deterrence and readiness against China. But deterrence rests on credibility. If the U.S. lacks the munitions required to sustain even a lower-grade conflict, its warnings carry less weight. This is why the complaints about depleted ammunition stocks miss the larger point. The problem is not that the U.S. is burning through munitions. It’s that the U.S. defense investments have not reflected changed geopolitical realities.
Five weeks into Operation Epic Fury, the U.S. Navy has fired over 850 Tomahawk cruise missiles. Prior to the conflict, annual Tomahawk production stood at roughly 90 units, and the fiscal 2026 defense budget funded the purchase of 57. The military expended approximately 15 years of Tomahawk procurement in 30 days. According to Payne Institute estimates, over 6,000 offensive and defensive munitions were used in the first 16 days alone, representing nearly half the total inventory. Patriot batteries defending Gulf states fired 943 interceptors in the first four days, equivalent to 18 months of factory output. THAAD interceptor stocks have been drawn down by an estimated third.
The U.S. spent approximately $877 billion on defense in 2022, $916 billion in 2023, $968 billion in 2024, and roughly $1 trillion in 2025. But measured as a share of GDP, this trajectory tells a different story. The defense spending has been consistently at around 3.5% of GDP. Compare that to the Cold War era, when U.S. defense spending averaged 6% to 8% of GDP.
Even after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and return of large-scale conventional warfare to Europe, then-President Joe Biden’s administration refused to increase defense spending in any meaningful way. The four years of fighting, the depletion of ammunition stocks, and the exposure of European defense industrial shortfalls did not produce a structural shift in the American defense industrial base.
President Donald Trump’s fiscal 2027 budget request, released on Friday, represents the first attempt to alter this trajectory at scale. It constitutes a 44% increase over current spending and aims to push defense outlays toward 5% of GDP. Among its priorities is expanded production of 12 critical munitions categories and $65.8 billion for shipbuilding. It arrives alongside a separate $200 billion emergency request to fund operations in Iran and replenish expended stocks.
HERE ARE THE HOLDUPS FOR THE BILL MEANT TO FIX THE HOUSING AFFORDABILITY CRISIS
The mistake of 30 years of peacetime spending has now arrived at a crisis point. While it will be hard to reach a consensus on Capitol Hill, a war in Europe in its fifth year, an active U.S. campaign in the Middle East, and a strategic competition with China mean the U.S. cannot ignore reality.
The U.S. military requires a share of national wealth that reflects simultaneous, overlapping challenges to U.S. security.