The numbers are in: Unions need a new playbook

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For decades, organized labor has been in decline. Despite periodic headlines suggesting a resurgence, unionization in the United States continues to fall. In 2025, just 10% of American workers belonged to a union — down from prior decades and only a marginal uptick from a record low the year before. Strip out the public sector, and the picture is even starker: Private-sector unionization remains at a record-low 5.9%.

Even under President Joe Biden’s self-described “most pro-union president” policies, unionization rates continued to fall. 

A driving force behind the decline is union officials’ refusal to adapt to changes in the nature of work itself.

The modern economy is more dynamic and mobile than the industrial landscape in which unions emerged. Seniority-based pay scales and rigid, one-size-fits-all contracts may have made sense on a 1950s assembly line, but they are increasingly out of step with today’s workforce. 

Many workers prefer compensation tied to performance, opportunities for advancement, and the flexibility to tailor their work arrangements. A model that treats all workers identically can end up serving few of them well.

The data reinforce this disconnect. While union jobs have historically commanded higher wages, that gap has narrowed as non-union wages have grown faster. 

Across industries, there is no consistent relationship between changes in unionization and wages. Over the past 25 years, the four industries that experienced the largest real wage gains simultaneously had two of the lowest and two of the highest declines in unionization.

Meanwhile, the broader economic picture points to another important factor: Workers’ individual rights. States that protect workers’ right to choose whether to join and financially support a union have seen markedly stronger job growth. Since 2000, private-sector employment in right-to-work states has grown by 27%, compared to just under 15% in states that require workers to pay union dues. 

That’s 5.5 million more new jobs in right-to-work states, where wage growth has also been slightly higher. 

Recent union contracts also illustrate the limits of unions’ strategies: Above-market wage increases can provide short-term gains but risk longer-term consequences.

Following the United Auto Workers’ new contract with the “Big Three” automakers, motor vehicles and parts jobs are down by 72,800. Similarly, after the International Longshoremen’s Association’s new contract for East Coast dock workers, jobs in support activities for water transportation are down by 5,600. When employers are forced by a union contract to pay higher wages than their operations can afford, they adjust — often by cutting jobs or investing in automation.

Lastly, surveys show that a key driver of job satisfaction is whether workers get along with coworkers and managers. Union organizers rely on adversarial tactics that pit workers against one another and against their employers. No one wants a hostile work environment, and in reality, workers and employers share many of the same goals.

None of this means that workers can’t benefit from collective action. 

Workers want to have their voices heard and feel represented in the workplace. Labor organizations, like unions, could provide that representation, but that will require rethinking how they work. In particular, unions should abandon their one-size-fits-all structure and allow multiple perspectives and contracts within a given workplace.

Large national unions are increasingly moving in the opposite direction, imposing a singular voice on all the local unions underneath them — including taking political positions on matters that have nothing to do with the workplace. 

This nationwide one-voice structure is especially problematic now that Big Labor unions represent a wide variety of workers with competing desires and interests. UAW has tried to prevent its decline by recruiting over 100,000 white-collar university professors and academic employees, and now must satiate these elites’ appetite for a union that engages in radical politics. UAW President Shawn Fain wore a “Trump is a Scab” T-shirt and campaigned for then-Vice President Kamala Harris during the 2024 presidential election, even as blue-collar workers swung Republican.

A more promising path forward is a voluntary and agile worker organization. Instead of requiring all employees in a workplace to accept a single, union-negotiated contract, workers should have the freedom to choose whether — and how — to participate. 

Voluntary representation would require unions to attract members by offering real value, whether through pooled benefits, training programs in emerging fields, or targeted advocacy on workplace issues.

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There are models for this approach. Professional associations and even sports leagues often negotiate baseline terms while preserving room for individual negotiation. Applying similar principles to the broader workforce would empower workers rather than constrain them.

The bottom line is clear: Unionization is unlikely to rebound unless unions adapt. Workers want a voice, but they also want choice, flexibility, and compensation that reflects their contributions. A modern labor movement that embraces voluntary participation and innovation could provide all three — and, in doing so, become relevant again in the modern economy.

Rachel Greszler is a senior fellow at the Plymouth Institute for Free Enterprise at Advancing American Freedom Foundation.

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