What the CPAC straw poll says

WHAT THE CPAC STRAW POLL SAYS. The Conservative Political Action Conference finished up its convention this weekend in Dallas with the traditional straw poll of attendees. Vice President JD Vance emerged as the leading 2028 prospect, with 53% of the vote. Secretary of State Marco Rubio placed second with 35%. No one else had above 2%.

That was a change from the 2025 CPAC gathering, when Vance won 61% of the vote, followed by an odd lineup: Steve Bannon, with 12%; Ron DeSantis, with 7%; and Rubio and Elise Stefanik with 3% each. 

Start off by saying the CPAC straw poll is wildly unscientific. There have been allegations of various types of skullduggery in the past. But it does measure the current sentiments of the roughly 1,500 activists of many conservative stripes who attended this year’s meeting in Dallas. 

That said, the notable aspect of what happened is that last year, there was only one heir apparent for President Donald Trump among the attendees. This year, there are two. 

The new poll is just one more indication that the rise of Marco Rubio has changed the face of the 2028 presidential race. As secretary of state, he has emerged as one of the stars of the new administration. He has defended American values abroad — as has Vance — but has not suffered from the widespread belief that he is uncomfortable with U.S. military interventions, as Vance has.

Real polls of the 2028 Republican race have scarcely more predictive value than the CPAC survey. At the moment, the RealClearPolitics average of polls taken since January of this year has Vance ahead, with 45.0%, followed by Donald Trump Jr., with 16.3%; Rubio, with 12.3%; Ron DeSantis, with 7.3%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., with 3.8%; Nikki Haley, with 3.3%; and Ted Cruz, with 2.3%.

All of them, of course, are locked into the fortunes of the Trump presidency. If the economy grows, the wars end with good results for the U.S., and no unexpected terrible things happen, they can run against each other unencumbered by the weight of events. If, on the other hand, the dangerous path Trump has chosen ends badly, or even somewhat badly, it probably won’t matter what the GOP candidates say. The 2028 Republican race is one in which no candidate has much control over his fate.