Iran is once again attacking its neighbors. In recent days, Tehran has launched drones and missile attacks at Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman, and Qatar, just as it did in the war’s opening days. And for the second time, NATO intercepted an Iranian missile over Turkish airspace.
Some have found the Islamic Republic’s decision to respond to U.S. and Israeli strikes by attacking its neighbors to be puzzling. After all, Tehran’s strikes seem sure to alienate those who, ostensibly, had little to nothing to do with the military campaign against it. And it could prompt some nations to join the fight against Iran. Some Iranian authorities, perhaps recognizing this possibility, initially apologized after the first round of attacks.
In short, it seems tremendously and transparently self-defeating. But there is a logic, foolish as it is, behind Iran’s decision to attack its neighbors, and it’s worth exploring.
Since its bloody birth in 1979, the Islamic Republic has sought the overthrow of Gulf monarchies. These countries are overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim, although some have significant minorities of the Shiite sect, the same branch of Islam as Iran’s rulers. At times, Iran has tried to use these minorities to place pressure on the Gulf states. But sectarian means don’t explain Iran’s ambitions.
In fact, the Islamic Republic has long wanted to be the spearhead of a new Islamic revolution, one in which the sect — Sunni or Shiite — matters far less than having a revolutionary, and fundamentally anti-Western and antisemitic, theocracy. The regime’s founding father, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, wanted to launch a new “Islamic epoch” with Iran at its epicenter. This has been the regime’s vision for nearly half a century, and it’s why the Islamic Republic has a long history of backing both Sunni and Shiite terrorist groups.
It’s why Iran has managed to convert various states, once sovereign, into satrapies. Lebanon, a multi-confessional country with a substantial Shiite population, has been de facto controlled by Hezbollah, Iran’s foremost proxy, for decades. Yet, Iran has also constructed a tremendous and terrible influence in places where few Shiites live, such as Gaza. To Iran, these differences matter less than their ultimate goal: regional hegemony
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Iran’s neighbors harbor no illusions about the regime’s objectives. For this reason, many Arab states have been hedging their bets. The decision by the Obama and Biden administrations to attempt to seek a concord with Iran, effectively ceding the Middle East to Tehran’s desires, only exacerbated this trend.
Some nations, notably Qatar, have even taken this a step further, at times serving Iran’s so-called “Revolutionary Axis,” which seeks to upend the region. Qatar doesn’t have the military means, but it does have a big purse and propaganda arms, and it has often used both in service of Iranian objectives.
By attacking the Gulf Arab states, Iran wants to cow and intimidate them, hoping that they’ll keep hedging their bets and refrain from entering the fight in any substantial way. The regime also hopes that pressure on these countries will translate to pressure on the United States and Israel, forcing them to halt or lessen their attacks.
Iran’s attack on Turkey can also appear puzzling. Turkey, like Iran, seeks to position itself as a leading Muslim power. And its leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, openly lusts for the old days of the Ottoman Empire. Under Erdogan, Turkish foreign policy has become more assertive and more aggressive, increasing support for terrorist groups such as Hamas, which also looks to Iran as a patron.
But Turkey and Iran are less allies and more rivals for power with competing visions. Turkey also has what Iran lacks: a strong industrial and manufacturing base, capable conventional forces, and a more dynamic economy.
If a missile were to land in Turkey, the Iranians wouldn’t shed a tear. And other NATO members, some of which have already signaled a lack of support for Operation Epic Fury, might begin to openly call for an end to U.S. and Israeli strikes. Indeed, one can envision the mullahs calculating that they might do precisely that just for having missiles in their airspace.
There is, of course, another reason why Iran is lashing out at its neighbors, and it neatly explains why the regime can’t be allowed to have nuclear weapons or the intercontinental ballistic missiles to place them on.
The Islamic Republic is not only the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism, it is itself a terrorist state. The regime was conceived in terrorism, it has ruled by terrorism, and it has maintained its grip on power via terrorism. Indiscriminately launching a barrage of missiles and drones at half a dozen countries shows that terrorism is inseparable from the regime itself. Put simply: It is who they are, and what they have always been.