I still believe that it was unwise to launch this war. President Donald Trump should have instead responded to Iran’s massacre of its own people and — associated breach of his red-line — by using potent but limited force against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
But now the war is upon us. And while Trump should pursue broader off-ramps to end this war sooner rather than later, he must not allow Iran to secure a strategic victory in the Strait of Hormuz. If necessary, he must master the escalation curve on this specific concern.
Granting Iran a Hormuz Strait victory would strongly suggest to that regime, and to China, Russia and other U.S. adversaries that Trump’s resolve is malleable to their pushing limited but painful pressure points. In turn, China might double down on its preparatory efforts to attack U.S. critical infrastructure and utilities to dissuade U.S. military intervention in the early stage of any future war over Taiwan. Russia might take greater risks to test NATO, believing Trump fearful of risking the U.S.’s short-term prosperity to defend allies in eastern Europe. It might encourage Trump’s erstwhile negotiating partner, Kim Jong Un, to again start throwing intercontinental ballistic missiles over the Pacific.
In the immediate, U.S. forces can continue degrading Iran’s military power. But if necessary, Trump should play Iran at its own game by targeting the Islamic Republic’s own energy export infrastructure.
There’s no question that Iran currently holds the strategic initiative in the Hormuz Strait. Transits through the chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean have ground to a halt. Energy prices are now soaring with volatility as oil and natural gas export terminals in Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq sit idle. The situation is clearly worrying Trump, with the president pledging financial insurance cover for ships attempting the Hormuz passage and warning Iran of harsher military strikes if it doesn’t stop what it’s doing.
Iran is highly unlikely to acquiesce to Trump’s demands. The regime sees this as its best means of afflicting a soft underbelly of American power: the expectation of Americans and their allies of cheap energy supplies. The Iranians are not idiots. They know that Trump has an eye toward the midterm elections and that a majority of the public already opposes this war. As rising energy bills hit and the Iranian regime shows no sign of imploding, that regime will assume Trump’s desperation will only grow.
This dynamic is intolerable for U.S. interests. If Iran continues to hold the Strait at risk, Trump should order U.S. military action to seize or partially destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure on the Persian Gulf. Including Iran’s Kharg Island terminal. Kharg Island is the Aorta of the regime’s energy export economy. Without it, the regime’s already pre-war crippled economy would face total implosion.
Partial strikes on the terminal might thus serve as an American ‘tap on the shoulder,’ encouraging Iran to allow transits through Hormuz in new fear for its own energy interests. It would also reinforce Iran’s perception of Trump’s appetite for risk and penchant for unpredictability, dissuading the regime from the belief that Trump’s resolve is hemorrhaging under gas price fears.
Trump could, alternatively, and more preferably, order special forces to seize the terminal. This would be a complex operation. Still, it is one the U.S. military has advanced planning for and forces able to conduct. Twenty miles from its coast, Iran would struggle greatly to recapture the island and would suffer punitive losses in any such attempt. And while Iran could employ drones and missiles against U.S. occupying forces, that would risk destroying the regime’s infrastructure. Thus amounting to a self-inflicted shot to the head.
To be sure, Kharg Island-related military contingencies are not ideal. Indeed, the reason we have not yet seen any such operations is that the island is so critical to Iran’s economy over the horizon. Entirely destroying the island’s infrastructure would almost certainly lead to an eventual state failure in Iran, grave humanitarian conditions, and the eventual development of a bloody civil war of uncertain character. And while that chaos might serve Israel, it would manifestly not be in America’s interest.
There are broader strategic interests at play here.
For one, the president is under growing pressure from the U.S.’s Sunni Arab monarchy allies to secure the Strait so that they can restart their key export pipelines. While regional leaders such as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman are taking action to diversify their energy-dependent economies, this is very much a work in progress. Trump has leveraged major investment deals with these regimes since returning to office. They expect him to protect their core economic interests in return. His failure to do so will suggest to these monarchies that they might be better off throwing their lot behind China.
EUROPEAN DEFENSE NEGLECT UNDERLINED BY ABYSMAL IRAN WAR RESPONSE
After all, while China’s closeness to Iran might frustrate the Sunni Arab monarchies, Beijing also emphasizes its offer of stability as the key tenet of its foreign policy beyond the Pacific Rim. Trump must show himself to be reliable to these allies. He should note how China and Russia made significant advances with America’s Sunni-Arab allies during the Obama and Biden administrations amid perceptions that the U.S. was an unreliable ally that took them for granted.
Yes, Trump should be seeking off-ramps to end this war. But he cannot allow surrender to Iran’s pressure at Hormuz to be one of them.