TRUMP, IRAN, AND THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. Last Dec. 9, this newsletter discussed the feeling, growing at the time, that President Donald Trump had not devoted attention to the economy, especially the cost of living. Voters regularly cite economic issues as the most important facing the nation, and this Trump term, with midterm elections approaching, is no different. “So now, Trump is preparing for 2026 with a new emphasis on affordability,” the newsletter said. “Of course, he still has to deal with other issues — no president can focus on just one thing. But when voting is less than a year away, it’s a very good idea to listen to the voters’ concerns.”
A little more than a week later, Trump gave a prime-time speech on the economy. The address was “part of the beginning of what the White House says will be an extended campaign to ease … economic worries,” the newsletter said. “The president has already held one rally in Pennsylvania and is scheduled to hold another in North Carolina.”
Three weeks later, the new emphasis on economic issues quickly faded. The Jan. 8 newsletter — “Trump, Venezuela, and the midterm pivot to the economy” — reported that Trump urged Republicans to make an extra effort in the midterms, in part because Trump is convinced he will be impeached if the GOP loses the House. But at the same time, the president’s military action in Venezuela pushed his economic initiatives into the background. “The open-ended Venezuelan campaign makes the pivot to the midterm elections seem like a long, long time ago,” the newsletter said.
Venezuela settled down and no longer dominates headlines. But since then, other things have happened that distracted attention from the economy, or even had a negative effect on midterm polling. Trump went to Europe and raised a weird stir over alleged U.S. designs on Greenland. The administration carried out an immigration enforcement operation in Minneapolis that got out of hand and resulted in U.S. agents killing two protesters. Democratic attempts to use the Epstein files against Trump have continued apace; they have shown little progress but have gotten a lot of media attention.
But now comes a really big event to consume the White House — the U.S. military action in Iran. Needless to say, it is dominating the public’s consciousness as any war involving American military men and women would. No one can say how long it will be at the top of the news, but there’s no doubt that U.S. forces face a lot of work to complete the mission.
Put aside the domestic arguments going on about Trump’s decision. Put aside the questions of whether the relatively small number of voters in the “no forever wars” corner of the president’s political base will be disillusioned. Put aside all that and just consider: What does U.S. involvement in a new and highly consequential war do to the midterm imperative to focus on improving the economy and standard of living for millions of Americans?
Probably very little. The economy will remain a serious concern no matter what happens in Iran. Of course, a great success in Iran will help Trump politically, although not as much as great economic success would. And a great failure in Iran will hurt him.
So why is Trump doing this right now? Skip the dark theories and accept that he is doing it for the reasons the administration says — to destroy Iran’s ballistic missiles, its navy, its nuclear program, and its ability to wreak havoc outside its borders. Accept all that. So how do the midterm elections play into this?
Perhaps in this way. If you listen to top administration officials, from the president to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on down, you will hear the message that they have already done the things that will create an improving economy in 2026.
They point to tax cuts included in last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act and bigger tax refunds that will be on the way in coming weeks. They point to no tax on tips, no tax on Social Security, and other measures. They point to the removal of a range of burdensome regulations on business. They point to falling inflation and rising wages. Perhaps most of all, they point to lower energy prices, especially lower gas prices.
It’s all been done or is in the process of being done, regardless of what is going on in the rest of the world. The economy is on track to improve. Trump and his aides weren’t ignoring it back in 2025; they were putting it on track for 2026.
Unless something goes terribly wrong. This week, the Wall Street Journal reported that “Oil prices are surging after the U.S. and Israel launched attacks against Iran. The disruption to the global oil market has already injected volatility into gasoline prices, which jumped up to $3.11, up 11 cents from Monday, according to AAA. The conflict, depending on how it progresses, could lead to yet-higher prices at the gas pump and higher overall inflation.”
That’s certainly not good news. On the other hand, that is a worst-case scenario. The Journal also noted that, “Even with prices quickly climbing, the conflict’s impact on gasoline prices and inflation could be fleeting,” depending on “the operation’s severity and duration.” In other words, the gas price problem might quickly pass.
We hope for the best, but we just don’t know. Twenty-plus years ago, during another U.S. war in the region, then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld referred to “known unknowns,” that is, things that we know we don’t know, and “unknown unknowns,” which are things that we don’t even know that we don’t know. Back then, things went badly for the American invasion of Iraq. Now, if events go well for U.S. forces, President Trump will have lots of time to talk about the economy. If not, the crisis could consume the White House, midterm hopes and all.