As expected, the United States and Israel have launched a large-scale military operation against the Iranian regime. This action was — or should have been — widely anticipated, due to the dramatic build-up of U.S. air assets in the region in recent weeks, coupled with the regime’s suicidal intransigence in diplomatic negotiations (more on the latter, crucial point in a moment). It is unclear how all of this will look when the dust settles.
As we wait and attempt to separate fact from fiction, we pray for our men and women in uniform, for the oppressed people of Iran, for our allies, and for our leaders’ wisdom and foresight as they make consequential, life-and-death decisions. It has been encouraging to see positive statements of support from many of our partner governments. It has been inspiring to see videos of Iranians, both on the ground and in the diaspora, celebrating the very real prospect of long-yearned-for freedom. But setting emotion aside, was this attack the right call?
THE US AND ISRAEL ATTACKED IRAN: WHAT WE KNOW
That final analysis will be for history to judge, years from now; it’s impossible to have perfect clarity in the moment. Many Americans are instinctively inclined to support this action, but that hopeful posture is undoubtedly tempered by various sources of trepidation and concern. These include, but are not limited to: (1) The plausibility of regime-backed terrorist sleeper cells activating within our nation, a threat that may have been exacerbated by our scandalously porous borders in recent years; (2) The sobering reality that despite our recent surgical moves in Iran and Venezuela resulting in zero American casualties, this time could be different; (3) The undeniable track record of regime decapitations not always ending well, to put it mildly; (4) The ongoing and corrosive irrelevance of our legislative branch in matters of grave national importance; (5) The humbling truth that wars always result in unknowable and unintended consequences.
We can hope that most or all of these points will look overblown, in retrospect. There are also valid counterpoints, or mitigating arguments, to each of them. One of the most important factors that cuts against some negative parallels being drawn to past conflicts is that Iran’s people broadly loathe this regime and desperately want a return to a free, open, West-friendly society — which many of them have enjoyed in living memory. Iran is not Afghanistan. Another is that there is zero indication America intends to engage in a ground war featuring an invading force, nor is there any apparent appetite for anything resembling a protracted occupation and nation-building experiment. These are not minor distinctions. Nevertheless, we must be cognizant of and humble about the aforementioned rule of unintended consequences, which casts a shadow over all of this.
WORLD LEADERS STRESS DIPLOMATIC RESOLUTION AFTER US-ISRAEL STRIKES ON IRAN
However.
We must also consider both the unintended consequences of inaction – particularly in the face of this once-in-a-generation opportunity to rid the planet of this regime in its uniquely weakened state – and the value of valid and righteous intended consequences. It’s impossible to know what letting this moment slip away might mean. But we do know how this regime has behaved, and what it has prioritized, for decades. This is not some mystery. Seizing this moment could absolutely head off future catastrophes and bloodshed, beyond what the regime has already inflicted. Then again, while it’s totally realistic, it’s impossible to assess that counterfactual with any certainty. What’s not impossible to know is why the regime richly deserves to be consigned to the dustbin of history.
One of the Islamic Revolution’s very first acts was capturing dozens of American hostages and holding them against their will for more than a year. Since that initial crisis, Iran has become the number one state sponsor of terrorism on earth, killing hundreds of Americans – both directly and through its proxies. It has plotted, executed and sponsored a long list of deadly attacks all around the world, including on our soil. It has issued death threats, and taken concrete steps to carry them out, against high-ranking American officials, including President Donald Trump himself.
It has relentlessly and fanatically pursued a nuclear weapons program, a terrifying prospect for a genocidal theocratic regime that literally chants “death to America” as a central creed. That program was crippled by Operation Midnight Hammer last summer, but intelligence reports indicate the regime has already taken steps to start rebuilding it. Think of this: Even facing down the barrel of the biggest gun it’s ever seen, and even in its enervated and nearly-naked state, the regime still refuses to abandon its nuclear obsession. It is their overwhelming priority and will remain so as long as they rule.
The mullahs and their henchmen have also brutalized the courageous and good people of Iran for decades. Whenever civilians have dared to speak out against their oppressors, they’ve faced beatings, kidnappings, show trials, unjust executions, and outright murders. Within the last few months, tens of thousands of them have been wantonly slaughtered in the streets by these butchers, who have failed their people in every conceivable way.
SEAN DURNS: THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC HAD ITS CHANCE
And in response to the people’s righteous protests, the regime has given them more mass murder. We cannot know precisely what would replace this regime if it is toppled. But unlike other situations embedded in our collective memory, in this case, it’s hard to conceive of a new status quo that could somehow be worse than the continued existence of a committed, America-hating and American-killing, Islamofascist regime that prizes nuclear weapons and organized terrorism above all else, while actively allied with the Chinese Communist Party and Russia. Virtually every alternative, while certainly flawed to varying degrees, is less bad. Ridding the world of that malignant threat is a worthy, and arguably overdue, intended consequence of this action.
Godspeed.