In a dramatic development to the just commenced “Operation Epic Fury,” the joint U.S.-Israeli air campaign to pummel Iran’s Islamic revolutionary regime, Iran’s supreme leader has been killed. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was eliminated in an Israeli strike on his command bunker. Israeli media reports that verified footage exists of Khamenei being pulled from the wreckage.
This is a severe blow to the Iranian regime, one that will advance President Donald Trump’s interest in figuratively and literally shaking up Tehran in the hope that a more malleable negotiating partner might rise. Still, Khamenei’s elimination carries high-risk consequences for the U.S. It means unprecedented Iranian escalation is now guaranteed.
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Khamenei wasn’t just Iran’s supreme leader. As I noted recently, the supreme leader “holds a perceived ordained role in the Iranian political system. Iran’s political structure is governed by the Khomeinist interpretation of Twelver Shia Islam. In short, Khamenei is regarded as a regent or guardian presiding over the faithful until the Mahdi, an Imam servant of the Prophet Muhammad, currently hidden from human eyes, returns to govern the Earth. Iranian regime hard-liners, and there are many of them, perceive Khamenei not just as a leader but as a servant of God on Earth.”
Martyrdom takes on special importance for the Iranian revolutionaries, the notion of honored sacrifice being linked to the martyrdom of their ideological forefather, Husayn ibn Ali, at the Battle of Karbala in 680 AD. Khamenei’s followers will perceive an absolute need to avenge him, even if doing so introduces much greater risk to their regime.
That brings us to the terrorist infiltration concern.
The Iranian terrorist apparatus has had many cells detected in recent years, especially because of Israeli intelligence activity and intelligence sharing with its allies. But Iran has also shown its ability to infiltrate Western nations such as the United Kingdom that possess highly capable intelligence services. We’ve also seen highly concerning infiltration activities by Iranian and Lebanese individuals (relevant in terms of Iran’s Lebanese Hezbollah partner) across both the Mexican and Canadian borders. The absolute porousness of the U.S.-Mexican border under the Biden administration makes it highly likely that some Iranian regime or Hezbollah combat operatives made it onto U.S. soil to wait as sleeper cells, holding for future orders.
These individuals may have benefited from impressive logistics networks in Canada and southern Latin America. And again, they will revel in the opportunity of avenging Khamenei at the cost of their own lives. Crucially, also, the profound nature of Khamenei’s death may also lead these cells to self-activate without direction from Tehran that might otherwise be detected by the U.S. intelligence community.
This threat environment underlines why FBI director Kash Patel has emphasized the bolstering of the bureau’s counterterrorism and counterintelligence units (it should be noted that the FBI’s refocus on immigration enforcement activities has weakened these units since Trump returned to office).
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In short, the elimination of Khamenei has provoked an unparalleled and theologically cloaked blood feud that Khamenei’s true believers will spare no effort to avenge.
Buckle up.