Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, the notorious fentanyl supplier, founder and leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, better known as ‘El Mencho,’ has succumbed to gunshot wounds. The takedown was the result of a joint effort between the Mexican military and U.S. intelligence agencies, representing the culmination of a long-standing unified effort aimed at dismantling the CJNG leadership.
The aftermath of the incident is an ongoing issue that the Mexican government now has to face. The powerful cartel is now taking to the streets of Mexico, unleashing a stir of violent activities inflicted upon the citizens of the country. Within hours of the incident, cartel members began lighting gas stations on fire, creating road blockades across six different states, and gun fights with various law enforcement.
This calculated response is now affecting the lives of many U.S. citizens who were enjoying vacation time, specifically in Puerto Vallarta, where the city has commenced lockdown protocol. Airports are closed, roads out of the city are blockaded, essentially trapping many American citizens in the city. The U.S. The State Department issued a security alert urging all American citizens in several Mexican states, including Jalisco, Tamaulipas, Michoacan, Guerrero, and Nuevo Leon, to shelter in place until further notice.
The fallout from El Mencho’s death is unpredictable, but with a force estimated between 18,800 and 33,100 members, the cartel’s capacity for chaos is staggering. Potential escalations extend far beyond simple retaliation; they include a surge in kidnappings, the systemic subversion of local governments, and a widespread destabilization of the region’s security architecture. The military operation, while very successful, has caused serious issues within the country. Many Mexican National Guard members have been killed, the number reaching 25, with many more numbers not reported due to ongoing violence.
With Mexico as the United States’ top trading partner, underpinned by high-volume exchange in the automotive, machinery, and electronics sectors — the U.S. faces a tough choice to make. The Trump administration’s push for ‘energy dominance’ and manufacturing reshoring relies heavily on a stable, integrated North American supply chain. Yet, this stability is threatened by the very cartels the administration has designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs).
The question is no longer just about trade; it is about capacity. The U.S. is currently navigating a world on fire:
- Iran: Tensions have reached a breaking point as the White House issued a 15-day ultimatum for a ‘zero-enrichment’ nuclear deal. With the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group moving into the Eastern Mediterranean, the U.S. is on the precipice of an extended military assault to dismantle Tehran’s nuclear infrastructure.
- Israel and Gaza: Regional volatility remains high following the 2024 campaigns, with the U.S. maintaining a heavy secondary presence to deter Hezbollah and Iranian proxies from a wider escalation.
- Russia and Ukraine: Now entering its fifth year, the conflict continues to drain Western munitions stockpiles and demand constant diplomatic and intelligence resources.
Can the U.S. afford a war on its own doorstep? The death of El Mencho was a win, but the resulting cartel chaos has already brought Mexican cities to a standstill. While taking the fight to the cartels is a popular campaign promise, President Donald Trump now has to decide if engaging in such a war is a viable option.
Trump posted on social media that: “Mexico must step up their effort on Cartels and Drugs!”. In response, President of Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum urged calm, and authorities announced late Sunday that they had cleared most of the more than 250 cartel roadblocks across 20 states. Sheinbaum claims that she has the situation under control, yet more and more posts all over social media might suggest otherwise.
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Sheinbaum is the president of Mexico, but the fact of the matter is that the cartels run the country. They hold a presence of fear over citizens and entire regions — a fear that is not alleviated by the President’s insistence that she has the situation under control.
The National Guard continued to be attacked and killed, states are still roadblocked, and people trapped. In order for the government of Mexico to take back control of its country, it needs to act — the time for apologies and ignorance of the situation is over.