Greece is no longer Europe’s chronic bailout case. It is becoming one of the world’s most compelling economic comeback stories and one of Europe’s most strategically important states.
The turnaround is real. Greece’s economy is expected to grow 2.4% in 2026, after expanding 2.2% in 2025. Tourism remains strong, but business investment is rising, and household consumption is improving. Even more significantly, Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to fall another 8 percentage points this year, to roughly 138%. For a country that once symbolized European fiscal excess, this trajectory is remarkable.
Athens has moved from crisis management to capital attraction. Fiscal discipline has improved. The banking system has been cleaned up. Private investment is returning. But Greece’s next chapter will not be written by tourism alone — it will be written by wages.
While macroeconomic indicators have improved, many Greek households still feel left behind after a decade of austerity. Sustained growth in real wages is essential. That requires abundant, reliable, low-cost energy capable of powering industry, attracting manufacturing, and creating year-round, high-paying jobs that do not disappear when the summer tourists leave. Energy is Greece’s economic and geopolitical ace.
Europe learned the hard way that dependence on Russian pipeline gas was never “interdependence.” It was a vulnerability. Greece sits on the southern flank of the continent, with ports, pipelines, and geographic proximity to alternative supply corridors. That positioning gives Athens a historic opportunity to become a major liquefied natural gas hub serving Eastern Europe and increasingly Western Europe.
The strategy is straightforward. LNG arrives by ship, is regasified at coastal terminals, and moves north through interconnectors into the Balkans and beyond. Pipelines are not merely infrastructure; they are strategy. Every new interconnection, every capacity expansion, reduces Moscow’s leverage over Europe’s energy markets. But the story does not end with transit.
Greece is in the process of confirming potentially vast offshore natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean. The scale has already attracted global energy giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron. Experts estimate that fields in waters where Greece holds sovereign rights could be worth as much as $250 billion.
The economic implications are substantial. Exploration and production create skilled jobs. Royalties flow to the state. Port activity and shipbuilding expand. Energy-intensive industries gain confidence to invest. Greece would move from Europe’s periphery to the center of its energy planning. With production comes leverage. Athens would gain political weight inside the European Union while strengthening its strategic relationship with the United States.
None of this unfolds in a vacuum. Turkey will not quietly welcome Greece’s rise as an energy power. Ankara has long treated maritime boundaries and energy claims as instruments of regional influence. That means Athens must pair ambition with deterrence: Strengthening alliances, maintaining credible naval capabilities, and grounding its claims firmly in international law.
Energy infrastructure can be protected. Strategic positioning can be reinforced. Greece should lean fully into its partnership with the United States and NATO. A Greece that anchors Europe’s southern energy corridor is firmly aligned with the West. Yet, if Greece succeeds in expanding LNG throughput, strengthening pipeline connectivity, and developing its offshore gas reserves, it will not merely improve its economy. It will become indispensable to Europe’s energy security architecture.
WHY THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS FOCUSED ON THE DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE
Greece spent a decade being judged by its debts. Now it can be judged by its leverage.
Athens has the opportunity to raise wages, strengthen its middle class, and help Europe finally break the habit of dependency. Used wisely, Greece’s geographic and energy advantages could reshape Europe’s energy map while providing the U.S. with a reliable, strategically positioned ally in the Eastern Mediterranean.
James Rogan is a former U.S. foreign service officer who later worked in law and politics for 30 years. Today, he writes a daily note on financial markets, economics, politics, and social issues.