SHOULD TRUMP SHAKE UP HIS CABINET? Nearly a month into his second year in office, President Donald Trump‘s Cabinet has been remarkably stable. No Cabinet member has quit, been fired, pushed out, or otherwise left the building. The question is whether that is a good thing or not. A president does not want to let his political enemies hound his top Cabinet officials out of office. On the other hand, by the end of an administration’s first year, it’s usually clear that one, or two, or more of the president’s Cabinet just aren’t working out. That is the issue confronting Trump today.
Compare the situation to Trump’s first term. There was a lot of movement, for a variety of reasons. First to leave was White House chief of staff Reince Priebus, who resigned on July 28, 2017, six months into the administration. Then Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly resigned on July 31 to become the new White House chief of staff. Then, on Sept. 29, 2017, Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price quit under pressure over spending public money on private travel.
On March 13, 2018, one year and nearly two months into the administration, Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. On March 28, 2018, Trump fired Veterans Affairs Secretary David Shulkin over Shulkin’s use of public funds for a European trip. On April 26, 2018, CIA Director Mike Pompeo left to become the new Secretary of State. On July 5, 2018, Environmental Protection Agency administrator Scott Pruitt resigned while under several investigations. And on Nov. 7, 2018, Attorney General Jeff Sessions was pushed out over Trump’s anger about the appointment of a special counsel in the Russia collusion matter.
None of this was terribly unusual. Trump’s first-year turnover was very similar to the first-year changes in the Cabinets of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama. (George W. Bush had little change in his first term.) Trump had more second-year changes than those predecessors, but still, all administrations have had significant Cabinet-level changes in nearly every year.
So what about Trump now? After a year with less turnover than any president in at least two generations, there’s a blunt and obvious question: Are there any Cabinet members who need to go?
Don’t look for any definitive answers here. Some would say DHS Secretary Kristi Noem. Some would say Attorney General Pam Bondi. Others point to Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and more.
The problem for Trump is the problem discussed in the last newsletter about Democratic calls to fire Lutnick. If the president were to boot any of the names above, it would undoubtedly give Democrats a burst of energy and make them resolve to keep up and intensify their attacks on the president. “Trump’s adversaries would have a scalp, and they would be eager to get another one, and another one, and another one, until — they hope — they finally get Trump’s scalp. It is both human nature and an iron rule of politics.”
But Cabinet turnover is also a rule in politics. And everyone in Trump’s Cabinet has already outlived a number of predecessors who served in Trump’s first administration. Change is coming.