The United States is assembling a “massive armada” near the Islamic Republic of Iran. Negotiations between the two countries are stalemated, and President Donald Trump has warned that “time is running out” for a deal to be reached over Tehran’s nuclear program.
But Iran has long been unwilling to negotiate in good faith. And there’s a simple reason: the regime’s legitimacy is inseparable from its nuclear ambitions. The world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism has sought nuclear weapons for decades. And the costs, both for the regime and the Iranian people, have been exorbitant.
Indeed, Iran’s nuclear program has led to an estimated $100 to $500 billion in sunken costs, lost oil revenue, and sanctions-related economic damage, according to Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. That is a tremendous commitment to what, by any fair assessment, is a failed policy.
In June 2025, the Trump administration launched Operation Midnight Hammer, a military strike aimed at curtailing Iran’s advancing nuclear weapons program. The U.S. severely damaged nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan.
The strikes themselves were a stunning success, with more than 125 aircraft, some equipped with massive ordinance penetrators, targeting heavily fortified facilities. Not a single U.S. servicemember was injured or killed — a feat made possible by Israel previously taking out Iran’s air defense systems. An initial study by the Institute for Science and International Security found that “the damage caused by airstrikes to numerous nuclear sites was extensive, and in many cases, catastrophic.”
Yet, Tehran’s desire to obtain nuclear weapons is undiminished. Iran’s nuclear program is buried, not dead.
A November 2025 report by the science institute found that “Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities, its facility to produce uranium hexafluoride (UF6) and its centrifuge manufacturing and research and development facilities remain severely damaged or destroyed.” But tellingly, satellite imagery also showed the regime working to protect and secure its suspected nuclear sites.
The imagery showed activity at the Pickaxe Mountain Tunnel complex, where stocks of enriched uranium may have been evacuated from the main Natanz site. Indeed, the fate and status of many enriched uranium stocks “remain unconfirmed,” ISIS noted. In October 2025, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, stated that inspectors had observed movement around sites where enriched uranium is stored.
Iran has refused to cooperate with IAEA inspectors. And in November 2025, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian vowed that Tehran will rebuild its nuclear program “with greater strength.” Tehran has continued to insist that its nuclear program is peaceful. This is a lie.
In fact, the regime has been explicit about why it wants nuclear weapons. Iran’s ruling theocrats routinely call for the destruction of both Israel and the U.S., or “Little Satan” and “Great Satan.” Their work on intercontinental ballistic missiles belies their objectives. After all, Israel isn’t a continent away. But the U.S. is, and it can’t afford to be held hostage to the nuclear blackmail of the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism.
INDICATIONS THAT TRUMP IS ABOUT TO BOMB IRAN
Some have argued that Iran can be enticed to peacefully end its nuclear weapons program, just as Libya and South Africa once did with theirs. But this will prove easier said than done when dealing with a regime whose very legitimacy is bound to its budding nuclear arsenal.
Henry Kissinger famously said that Iran must decide whether it is a “nation or a cause.” However, the Islamic Republic has chosen to be both. And its nuclear ambitions will likely last as long as the regime itself.