The arrest of China‘s top uniformed military officer and a separate member of the Central Military Commission decreases the short-term threat of a Chinese attack on Taiwan (2026). But it likely increases the medium-term threat (2027-2030). Zhang Youxia is accused of corruption and of undermining the Communist Party’s interests.
His downfall is a big deal. Respected in the People’s Liberation Army for his 58 years of service, Zhang’s combat experience in the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese war and a bloody skirmish between the two countries in 1984 was highly valued. Unlike the rising officer ranks of the U.S. military, most of whom have seen extensive combat in Afghanistan, Iraq, and other operations, the PLA is bereft of combat-experienced personnel.
DID GEN. DAN CAINE TELL TRUMP THE MILITARY WON’T ATTACK GREENLAND
Zhang’s departure means that the Central Military Commission, China’s very rough equivalent of the U.S. military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, has only one remaining member aside from Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping. Namely, Gen. Zhang Shengmin. This is only the latest in a multiyear series of purges that have seen the top PLA ranks eviscerated.
In the short term, Taiwan can likely breathe a tentative sigh of relief.
The retained Zhang is a political commissar and devoted Communist Party disciplinarian. His retention and newly outsize influence over the PLA suggest that its short-term focus will weigh heavily toward the PLA’s increased political discipline. And on the promotion of officers in that same vein. This recalibration should reduce the near-term threat of an attack on Taiwan as paranoia over loyalty trumps regard for military talent and readiness.
But this loyalty fixation will also reduce the likelihood of future military leaders speaking truth to Xi. And considering that Xi views the subjugation of Taiwan under the Chinese Communist Party as the defining prerequisite for both his personal legacy and the CCP’s 21st-century destiny, a PLA senior leadership defined by “yes men” will ultimately make a war likelier. And even if the timing or conduct of that war is not in China’s favor. Indeed, an editorial in the PLA’s official newspaper hinted that Zhang Youxia may have been relieved, at least in part, over disagreements with Xi over the timeline for war with Taiwan. The editorial claimed that he had “inflicted grave harm on… overall combat readiness.”
Still, there remain bold officers in important command positions outside of Beijing. Take the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command’s leader, Gen. Yang Zhibin. Yang is a respected air force officer with extensive experience across the PLA’s various theater commands. And while he’s only been in his current position for one month, he led highly impressive exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan just four days after taking office. But the question remains: Are there enough officers like Yang for the PLA to deliver on Xi’s timeline to be able to seize Taiwan by the year 2027? After all, these latest exercises largely reflected the strategic thinking of the Eastern Theater Command’s naval commander, Adm. Wang Zhongcai, an officer who revolutionized the Chinese Coast Guard’s role alongside the PLA Navy. But Wang was also relieved as part of the latest purge.
CHINA IS TOASTING TRUMP’S REPELLANT AFGHANISTAN RHETORIC
If Xi wants Taiwan under the CCP flag, he will have to balance his own paranoid need for absolute loyalty with the need for competent military leaders. If Xi leans too far into his paranoia, he will only deter the best military minds from speaking up, taking risks, and in so doing advancing the PLA’s means of conquering Taiwan and defeating any U.S. forces sent to the island’s defense.
The stakes here are great. A successful Chinese conquest of Taiwan would be catastrophic for U.S. diplomatic, security, and economic interests. But a Chinese defeat would certainly be catastrophic for Xi, and perhaps even for the CCP itself.