It has recently been a bad stretch for President Donald Trump, perhaps the worst of his second term. But recent polls showing a bump in support from Hispanic voters might offer a path forward.
The latest Emerson College survey has Trump’s approval rate surging among Hispanic voters. Emerson found that 43.3% of Hispanics approved of the president’s performance, up 15 points from last month. Results from the latest New York Times/Siena poll show a similar movement, with Trump’s standing among Hispanics rising by 13 points since December.
One explanation is that Hispanics enthusiastically support the Trump administration’s recent capture of Venezuela’s tyrant, Nicolas Maduro. A new Morning Consult poll found that 66% of Hispanics supported the move, the highest level of approval of any racial group. White people, for example, supported the president’s decision at 64%. The triumphant military operation saw elite U.S. commandos dive into the heart of a foreign country and snatch a dictator and enemy of America without suffering a single loss. It’s no surprise that such an exhibition of strength and competence would play well with voters.
The public has become increasingly skeptical of foreign interventions in recent years, but they like to win. Hispanic people are no exception.
Trump’s efforts to secure the border and crack down on drug trafficking and violent crime have also received favorable support in this demographic group. Under the Biden administration, America’s southern border became a playground for narcoterrorist organizations, with predictable results. Americans of all ethnicities became less safe as their communities deteriorated.
Trump has restored sovereignty, worked to seal the border, and taken the fight to the doorstep of those who peddle the poison that kills thousands of Americans. The status quo was neither working nor sustainable, and the public knew it.
Unsurprisingly, a majority supports securing the border. So, too, do the Hispanic voters who have played a key role in Trump’s political fortunes.
In 2024, Trump received a record share of their votes at 43%. While not as high as his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris, this is a higher percentage than any Republican candidate in modern history, and an 8-point increase from 2020. It could be the start of something big for Trump and the Republican Party, possibly giving both a needed boost as they look ahead to a difficult midterm.
For decades, the Republican Party has sought to attract Latinos and other minority voters who had long been part of the Democratic coalition. George W. Bush, for example, made a concerted effort to bring Hispanics into the tent, seeking to use immigration reform and other measures to do so. Trump’s approach has been altogether different.
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He has sought to remake the Republican Party as the champion of the working class, willing to address the “root cause” of illegal immigration. This has been key to winning over voters whom the Democratic Party took for granted.
Bringing them into the GOP alone won’t be enough to bring the party victoriously across the finish line. Its fate will hinge on the economy and prices, as voters will hold the ruling party accountable. But Trump’s rebalancing of relations with Latin America, which includes toppling Maduro and deporting illegal immigrants who taint legal immigrants, can be an element in winning Hispanic votes next November. If Trump can lower the cost of living, he will likely hold his gains among Hispanics.