The Syrian government under President Ahmad al Sharaa has moved to reassert control over Kurdish-held territories in the country’s north and northeast. Kurds facing pressure both from Damascus and from their former Arab allies against ISIS were pushed out of Aleppo and Raqqa.
The Syrian government subsequently took control of oil and gas fields in Deir ez Zor province and dams along the Euphrates River. This infrastructure had sustained Kurdish autonomy. Kurdish forces then retreated to Rojava, the predominantly Kurdish region in Syria’s northeast. A phone call from President Donald Trump to al Sharaa reportedly then halted the Syrian advance.
From Damascus’s perspective, these moves restore legitimate state authority. After years of fragmentation, civil war, and devastation, the new government views territorial integrity as essential to rebuilding a functional state. But the Kurdish question greatly complicates this effort.
Syria’s Kurdish population, numbering approximately 2 to 3 million people, represents roughly 10% of the country’s pre-war population. Kurds are concentrated primarily in three noncontiguous regions along Syria’s northern border with Turkey: Afrin in the northwest, Kobani in the north-central area, and Jazira in the northeast. The autonomous administration the Kurds established in 2012, commonly known as Rojava, controlled approximately 30% of Syrian territory at its height. This territory contained some of Syria’s most productive oil fields and significant agricultural lands along the Euphrates River. Alongside their deployment of tens of thousands of fighters against ISIS, the Kurds still operate their own civil governance structures, including courts, schools teaching in Kurdish, local councils, and police forces. Put simply, they have been successfully functioning as a de facto state within Syria’s borders.
But what now for the Kurds? What kind of government will al Sharaa build?
Only time will tell whether his renunciation of jihadist ideology could reflect genuine transformation or tactical necessity. More concerning is his control over militant factions from ISIS and al Qaeda, many of whom have hostile views toward Kurds. Whether al Sharaa can or will restrain these elements remains unknown.
Turkey’s role adds complexity. Ankara, Turkey’s capital, has actively supported Damascus’s offensive into Kurdish areas. Turkey views Kurdish fighters as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party terrorist group. The emerging Syrian-Turkish partnership suggests Damascus may face pressure to restrict Kurdish political organization and disarm Kurdish forces. For Kurds weighing integration, this raises questions about whether a government aligned with Ankara will protect their rights.
Hence the core dilemma. If Kurdish forces disarm and fully integrate with the new state, they lose their capacity for self-defense. Yet their maintaining separate armed forces contradicts Damascus’s central authority and remains unacceptable to both Syria and Turkey.
What will Trump do?
Washington partnered with the Kurds when they were useful allies in countering ISIS. Abandoning that partnership would carry moral costs. But it will also carry strategic costs if things change and Syria’s new rulers start opposing American interests. Its Kurdish relationship also provides Washington with leverage in a region where Turkish influence is expanding. On the flip side, supporting Kurdish autonomy against Damascus risks prolonging the instability in Syria.
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Decentralization within a unified Syrian state could theoretically address these competing concerns, granting Kurds local governance and security guarantees while respecting Damascus’s sovereignty. Iraq’s Kurdistan region offers an imperfect but otherwise credible model here.
Yet this requires trust. Damascus must believe Kurds will accept central authority, Kurds must believe Damascus will honor autonomy agreements, and Turkey must accept Kurdish self-governance. That trust is now absent. And the future of Syria’s Kurdistan hangs in the balance.