The seizure, by the Army’s Delta Force unit, of Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro from his heavily fortified compound in Caracas on Jan. 3 was a remarkable military feat. Russia’s vaunted S-300 air defense system either failed to work or was destroyed within minutes. The Kremlin’s response was limited to condemnation.
This was not an isolated case. From Caracas to the Caucasus, the architecture of Russian influence built over decades is collapsing. Ukraine’s resistance has drained Moscow’s military capacity, and President Donald Trump’s interventions have exposed what remains: a declining power unable to protect its allies.
Syria showed Trump what was possible when Russia’s ally, Bashar Assad’s regime, was overthrown by rebels in an incredibly swift December 2024 offensive. Assad, whom Moscow had propped up at enormous cost for a decade, fled to Moscow. He had to flee because Russia, stretched thin in Ukraine, could do nothing to stabilize his regime.
Then came the South Caucasus, where Russia, which served a traditional role as a regional arbiter, was sidelined entirely. With Trump’s mediation, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a joint declaration to end their decadeslong conflict. For over 30 years, Moscow was the go-to for Yerevan and Baku, deploying peacekeepers and entrenching itself as the sole guarantor in a conflict it did not care to end and kept it as a button to press when needed. Trump thus diminished Russian presence in its backyard, replacing Moscow’s peacekeepers with an American-supervised corridor branded the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.”
Soon, Russia may host another ally head of state in Moscow.
As Iranian protesters take to the streets in large numbers, Trump has threatened military action to aid them against the regime’s oppression. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s regime now hangs in the balance. Over decades, Moscow has supplied Iran with Russian-designed small arms and Soviet-era armored platforms that have been repurposed for domestic crackdowns, including Kalashnikov-pattern rifles, PKM machine guns, and armored personnel carriers used during major protest waves. It has provided Tehran not only military but also economic and diplomatic help. Iran has returned the favor. Tehran is estimated to have sent around $2.7 billion worth of missiles alone to Moscow, along with Shahed drones that Russia now copies and produces at home and uses in Ukraine. But, as with Venezuela, Russia will have no option but to look away if Trump decides to escalate militarily.
Where is Russia today?
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Well, North Korean soldiers may be dying in Ukraine’s east, but China is the only critical ally Russia has left. Beijing provides intelligence, drone components, and economic support that keep Russia’s war machine running. Yet this moment of Russian weakness carries a warning. If Moscow emerges from the Ukrainian war through a negotiated settlement that allows it to claim victory, the United States will then face a larger, more determined Russian force determined to again challenge Washington globally.
Whether by design or chance, Trump’s recent actions have proven that Russian power exists only where American power is absent. Trump has exposed Moscow’s impotence. But the question remains: Will America use this strategic opportunity and cement it through a victory in Ukraine, or not?