For nearly half a century, the Iranian people have endured a religious dictatorship that rules through repression, economic mismanagement, and the export of radical ideology. Today, the regime is more desperate than ever before. As massive protests sweep across Iran, emanating from a wide spectrum of grievances, we face a pivotal moment: Will the United States finally support the Iranian people’s quest for freedom, or will it repeat the mistakes of the past?
The U.S. intelligence community has often struggled to predict the outcomes of major geopolitical shifts, and Iran is no exception. What the intelligence community analysts do well is assess the intentions and capabilities of adversaries. Currently, the evidence is clear: Iran’s economic crisis and widespread public grievances have created the conditions for real change. Yet, previous American support for anti-regime movements has been tepid, leaving the Iranian people to fight and die alone.
In fact, both the Obama and Biden administrations chose to remain silent during previous nationwide uprisings over concern that supporting the protests would disrupt or reduce the prospects for negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. As the world watched, the regime would kill and arrest thousands of its citizens while the U.S. did nothing. The mullahs’ regime scored a double victory, gaining a free hand to squash internal dissent and conceding nothing in its quest to acquire a nuclear weapon.
The Trump administration faces a historic opportunity. By shifting policy to advocate openly for regime change led by Iranians themselves, the U.S. can align its interests with those of the Iranian people. This is not just a strategic imperative; it is a moral one. That shift is not only in the best interest of the long-suffering Iranian people, but also in America’s national security interests in the region and beyond.
Despite recent efforts to negotiate with Tehran, and despite sanctions and even targeted strikes on nuclear facilities, Iran’s leaders remain defiant. They continue to provide arms and funding to their terrorist proxies, including Hezbollah and Hamas. And they continue to declare openly their intention to pursue uranium enrichment, cloaking their nuclear ambitions in nationalist rhetoric. The pattern is familiar: Negotiations lead nowhere, and the regime maintains its nuclear ambitions. There is no reason to believe that future negotiations will yield a different outcome in terms of addressing U.S. vital interests or in providing the Iranian people the political voice they have long sought.
Supporting the Iranian people is the only viable path to ending Iran’s nuclear program and its destabilizing influence in the Middle East. America’s past mistake was to treat the nuclear issue in isolation, as the failed 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action demonstrated. The billions of dollars provided to the regime under that agreement only fueled Tehran’s repression and regional aggression.
For 47 years, Iran’s leaders have demonstrated that they will not change their behavior at home or abroad. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has once again demonstrated that the survival of his regime is based on brutalizing its citizens, as seen in the hundreds of people reportedly killed during the protests.
American support should not mean military intervention with boots on the ground or even large-scale material aid. Instead, it means recognizing the Iranian people’s right to self-determination and endorsing their efforts to build a democratic, secular, and non-nuclear state. The Iranian people are both the regime’s primary victims and its greatest threat. Supporting their freedom is not only the right thing to do, but it is also the most effective way to achieve U.S. security goals.
It is time to abandon the wishful thinking that has dominated U.S. policy for decades — the hope that Iran will change through concessions and negotiations. The mainstream academic and policy communities have long underestimated the power of the Iranian people. But the events unfolding today challenge that conventional wisdom. The U.S. must stand behind the Iranian people as they seek to overthrow the regime that has oppressed them since its inception.
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Today, the regime is more vulnerable than ever. Its proxies have suffered devastating losses, its economy is in free fall, and its citizens are revolting against corruption and repression. The Iranian people have had enough. They have the experience and resolve to succeed. International support, including calls for regime change by the Iranian people, voiced on behalf of the Iranian people, is vital. President Donald Trump was wise not to endorse any single element of the opposition. Revolutions are messy things in which the unpredictable can happen. What is clear is that Iran is not Libya or Iraq. Iran has been a nation-state for thousands of years. Its people seek freedom and democracy and possess the means to achieve their goals.
The nationwide internal protests, which the brutal Iranian regime instigated with Iran’s economic collapse, combined with the debilitating U.S. attacks on nuclear sites six months ago, created a window of opportunity. It must be used to support the Iranian people, not to repeat failed approaches. If the U.S. does not act, the next surprise from the supreme leader and his despotic regime could be catastrophic.
David R. Shedd is a former acting director of the Defense Intelligence Agency and National Security Council senior director and special assistant to the president for intelligence programs and reform. He is the author of The Great Heist: China’s Epic Campaign to Steal America’s Secrets (HarperCollins). All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the U.S. government. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or endorsement of the author’s views.